new forecast.. still not buying model solutions

[Derek Ortt]

GFS is ruining the CONU consensus. I'll do 3 mountain time trials up the Pic du Midi every day for the next year if GFS verifies


http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

also, the forecast by cangialosi was the nwhhc forecast. We had some major confusion as to who was doing the special forecast

[dhweather]

Good forecast and humor!

[yoda]

GFS is ruining the CONU consensus. I'll do 3 mountain time trials up the Pic du Midi every day for the next year if GFS verifies


http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

also, the forecast by cangialosi was the nwhhc forecast. We had some major confusion as to who was doing the special forecast

150 KTS?!?!?! WHAT! Umm.. mistake there Derek?

150 kts = 172.5 MPH...

[Ixolib]

GFS is ruining the CONU consensus. I'll do 3 mountain time trials up the Pic du Midi every day for the next year if GFS verifies


http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

also, the forecast by cangialosi was the nwhhc forecast. We had some major confusion as to who was doing the special forecast

WOW... In my short time on this board, your stuff has always risen to the top in terms of relative accuracy. And you're hinting at a possible nudge even further west on subsequent forecasts. Very Interesting - and thank you.

[Derek Ortt]

the 150 is not a mistake.

Isabel reached MPI last year (or even exceeded it). We could see the same here

as ofr more track adjustments, the overnight motion will be key, as well as the 0Z global model runs (hoping we dont have a charley again when the models refused to match up with the atmospheric conditions, giving the EC of Florida and the Carolinas no warning)

[wxman57]

I agree on the 150kt possibility. This is a Cat 5 in the making (if not already) if I've ever seen one. I don't know about the movement toward the FL Panhandle, though. My gut is saying western Peninsula again, very similar to Charley's track. Pattern is very similar, too.

[caneman]

I agree on the 150kt possibility. This is a Cat 5 in the making (if not already) if I've ever seen one. I don't know about the movement toward the FL Panhandle, though. My gut is saying western Peninsula again, very similar to Charley's track. Pattern is very similar, too.

Ah Sh!t now why did you have to go and say that. BTW - awesome job prediciting major activity for Florida this year.

[c5Camille]

Derek, i see your forcast if pretty far left of
all the models and i bit left of the NHC... I respect your
forcasts... but isn't yours is now an "outlier"(sp?)...

I beleive what your saying about the trough and
westward direction (direction is obvious)... but
can all the others be that far off... especially with
your reference to wanting to shift further west with
your track... I confussed...

[Derek Ortt]

well, the models sure did a nice job of f---ing up charley trek up the east coast. Despite a steerring flow that even an 8th grade earth science student could figure out meant that charley was going up the east coast, the models decided tot ake that extended lunch break

[Brent]

GFS is ruining the CONU consensus. I'll do 3 mountain time trials up the Pic du Midi every day for the next year if GFS verifies


http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

also, the forecast by cangialosi was the nwhhc forecast. We had some major confusion as to who was doing the special forecast

Near Jamaica as a 150 kt hurricane?

[MBryant]

I'd like to know anything you know about the 98A model. It is the only one that might recognize my thinking that even your west outlyer may be way too far east. I see the trough the models see but it's like a freeway you can see that has no on ramp.

I still think Ivan will speed right on by the trough and be too far south of any weakness to steer back north.

I still think Central America is in Ivan's sights.

[tropicstorm]

Derek -

What does nwhhc stand for? Just curious.

[Derek Ortt]

northwest hemisphere hurricane center

[PurdueWx80]

I agree on the 150kt possibility. This is a Cat 5 in the making (if not already) if I've ever seen one. I don't know about the movement toward the FL Panhandle, though. My gut is saying western Peninsula again, very similar to Charley's track. Pattern is very similar, too.

The pattern is very similar? So we have a record cold and deep trough forecast for the center of the country in 5 days? Our forecasts sure as heck don't show that. There may be some sort of residual trough along the Gulf, but nothing like we saw with Charley....and not nearly as far south as when that happened.

[caneman]

I agree on the 150kt possibility. This is a Cat 5 in the making (if not already) if I've ever seen one. I don't know about the movement toward the FL Panhandle, though. My gut is saying western Peninsula again, very similar to Charley's track. Pattern is very similar, too.

The pattern is very similar? So we have a record cold and deep trough forecast for the center of the country in 5 days? Our forecasts sure as heck don't show that. There may be some sort of residual trough along the Gulf, but nothing like we saw with Charley....and not nearly as far south as when that happened.

I don't think it is that different though. While the trough may not be that deep it would still follow the Bermuda High into West Florida but this time perhaps a little North.

[MBryant]

I really value your opinion Derek. You and Snonut are my favorite (and most accurate) forecasters. I hope my lack of understanding of the magical northward driving component that I can't see doesn't come off as argumentative or disrespectful.

But, I Hope I'm right...for Florida's sake.

[Javlin]

Derek if this pulls off like you say or even close the NHC is going to really start looking at the way they collect data.I am seeing some of what you mention and believe that your's will most likely play out.That being said I would have to say you rank right up there with Nash Roberts out of N.O. if you know who I am talking about.

[B-Bear]