Comments on the Atlantic [08.09.2004, 2017 UTC]...Corrected

[DoctorHurricane2003]

W 08.09.2004 [WED SEP 08 2004]
2017 UTC [03:17 PM CDT]

CORRECTED SPELLING OF JAMAICA AT 2047 UTC.
ADDED MARGIN OF ERROR AT 2055 UTC.

HURRICANE IVAN (09L)

VERIFICATION:
The previous forecast seems to have verified quite well [Page: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=42536 ]. As follows are my forecasts for 12 HR from previous comments, and 24 HR from previous comments, and there verifying positions using the 2 AM and 2 PM Intermediate Advisories:

12 HR 12.0 N 63.4 W 110 KT ACTUAL: 12.3 N 64.1 W 115 KT
24 HR 12.9 N 67.2 W 110 KT ACTUAL: 13.1 N 67.0 W 120 KT

Initially, my forecast was a little slow, but otherwise I am only two tenths off of both lat and lon for the positions. For strength, I was expecting more interference from the shear, but the trough associated with it is starting to move westward a little quicker.

FORECASTS:

Currently, Ivan is strengthening at a fairly steady pace. Satellite presentations continue to improve with much better outflow on the western side of the system. Strength forecast: I expect Ivan to continue strengthening through today, with a leveling off or slight weakening in about 12-36 hours, continuing after that. The weakening is due to the appearance of cooler waters, but I am unsure of how much this will affect Ivan. I will forecast only a 5 KT decrease over these waters for now. Position Forecast: I believe Ivan will continue WNW through the period, however, with a NW turn over extreme Western Cuba by days 3 and 4. All interests in the Netherlands Antilles, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Western Cuba, and the Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Ivan. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Netherlands Antilles, and you should secure your self in a local shelter or in a secure portion of your house until hurricane force winds have passed. Below is my position and intensity forecast for 2017Z:

INITIAL 13.1 N 67.0 W 120 KT
NEXT ADVISORY 13.4 N 67.5 W 125 KT
12 HR 14.5 N 71.0 W 130 KT*
24 HR 15.0 N 74.5 W 125 KT*
36 HR 15.7 N 76.7 W 125 KT*
48 HR 18.2 N 79.3 W 130 KT*...JUST WEST OF JAMAICA
72 HR 21.5 N 83.0 W 145 KT*...NEAR ISLE OF YOUTH
96 HR 25.0 N 86.0 W 135 KT*...IN SE GULF OF MEXICO
120 HR 28.0 N 88.0 W 145 KT*...APPROACHING CENTRAL GULF COAST

*NOTE: EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASES COULD VARY THE INTENSITY BETWEEN 105 AND 165 KT AT ANY TIME.
*THE 72 HR POSITION IS THE MEAN OF A CONE OF 100 NM.
*THE 96 HR POSITION IS THE MEAN OF A CONE OF 150 NM.
*THE 120 HR POSITION IS THE MEAN OF A CONE OF 200 NM.


U.S. GENERAL LANDFALL PROBABILITIES WILL BEGIN BEING POSTED TOMORROW.

MOST LIKELY AREA BETWEEN GRAND ISLE, LA AND TARPON SPRINGS, FL...SOMEWHERE NEAR PASCAGOULA/MOBILE FOR THE MEAN.


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