Texas out of the woods?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Johnny
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1428
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:35 pm
Location: No Snow For You, Texas

Texas out of the woods?

#1 Postby Johnny » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:31 am

I know it's too early to tell but looking over models and the extended forecast, it looks like Ivan will not make it to Texas. Any thoughts?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Innotech
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1031
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact Innotech

#2 Postby Innotech » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:32 am

texas will be behind the steering features, so it isnt likely, but htis season has done many unlikely htings.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LaBreeze
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1497
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:57 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

#3 Postby LaBreeze » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:33 am

I agree with you that Ivan probably will not make it to Texas (or even Louisiana for that matter). That's just my thoughts on it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29133
Age: 74
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

#4 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:38 am

Innotech wrote:texas will be behind the steering features, so it isnt likely, but htis season has done many unlikely htings.


More than likely Texas will be, as you say, behind the steering features, as long as the High to our NW stays strong. However if Ivan helps strengthen the Bermuda high, the ridge to his North, then those to the West of NO may need to be watching Ivan even closer than we already are. If the current apparent WNW trend continues the rest of today I will rest a lot easier in relation to an possible W GOM hit. Not wishing this on anyone because Ivan could be a MONSTER wherever he goes, but I'd put TX chances of receiveing Ivan's fury at this point in the 20% range maximum.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image
Top
User avatar
~SirCane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 287
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 9:55 pm
Location: Pensacola, FL
Contact:
Contact ~SirCane

#5 Postby ~SirCane » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:38 am

New Orleans Eastward from what it looks like to me......
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8740
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#6 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:43 am

Landfall between New Orleans and Gulf Port, MS
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 690
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 3:06 pm
Location: Ogden, NC
Contact:
Contact Bane

#7 Postby Bane » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:07 pm

Landfall between New Orleans and Gulf Port, MS


Model trends would lead me to believe east of there.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BayouVenteux
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 775
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 3:26 pm
Location: Ascension Parish, Louisiana (30.3 N 91.0 W)

#8 Postby BayouVenteux » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:18 pm

Bane wrote:Model trends would lead me to believe east of there.
You may be inferring a landfall even further east...and south perhaps, than this, but I'm still hanging with the area from 85W to the FL/AL border as the eventual destination window.
0 likes   
Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
Top
corpusbreeze
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 386
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2004 3:57 pm

#9 Postby corpusbreeze » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:18 pm

The 1200 CMC seems to have an idea that looks possible with the high building west when Frances moves out quickly north blocking Ivans nw movement.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CourierPR
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1336
Age: 71
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:53 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

#10 Postby CourierPR » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:21 pm

Pakistan is now out of the woods.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#11 Postby dhweather » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:23 pm

CourierPR wrote:Pakistan is now out of the woods.


Ditto for the Falkland Islands. :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2128
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#12 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:23 pm

Betcha those penguins in Antarctica can breathe a sigh of relief right now! :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#13 Postby dhweather » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:23 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Landfall between New Orleans and Gulf Port, MS


Gee, I love you too! :P :P :P
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hiflyer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 564
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:24 am
Location: West Broward Florida

#14 Postby hiflyer » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:27 pm

I would think that this would be the defining moment for New Orleans if landfall put the city on the strong side with the tidal surge....talk of damage from Charley and Frances would be relegated to page 3.
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#15 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:27 pm

LaBreeze wrote:I agree with you that Ivan probably will not make it to Texas (or even Louisiana for that matter). That's just my thoughts on it.


Texas yes La. Definite NO.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BayouVenteux
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 775
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 3:26 pm
Location: Ascension Parish, Louisiana (30.3 N 91.0 W)

#16 Postby BayouVenteux » Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:30 pm

CourierPR wrote:Pakistan is now out of the woods.
Oh sure...go ahead with your REVERSE -removed-!! I'll bet you live in Karachi, don't you!?

Forget it buddy...no matter what you may believe, the Arabian Sea is NOT on Ivan's itinerary!!!!

(sorry...I couldn't help it when I saw your post. :lol: :lol: )
0 likes   
Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
Top
rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#17 Postby rtd2 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:03 pm

Qoute "Landfall between New Orleans and Gulf Port, MS"








Captain... I must admit thats a tight window of landfall.....most people give a larger ( CYA!) Forecast cone! like the offical Guys! I DONT LIKE YOUR CHOICE but I respect your ability to go out on A limb! I'll stick with my ROOMY pick of N.O. to P'cola! :oops:
0 likes   
Top
Janie34
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 232
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 5:40 pm
Location: coastal Alabama

#18 Postby Janie34 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:19 pm

My early estimation is going to be from the MS/AL line to Appalachicola. Right now I'm leaning more toward a NW Florida solution.
0 likes   
Top
FungusMoldlyColdcuts

#19 Postby FungusMoldlyColdcuts » Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:21 pm

why did everyone start making predictions here? there are 20 other threads for that. the post was 'Is texas out of the woods.' be respectful

the answer is, obviously, no. keep an eye on Ivan from texas to maine.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gatorcane, ronjon and 56 guests