NWS AFD Melbourne

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KMLB 080747
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS NOSING IN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND
DEPARTING T.D. FRANCES TO THE NORTH. DEEP S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA TODAY THOUGH GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS TIGHT AS FRANCES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN (NOW AT 1000 MB AND CLIMBING). THESE S/SW WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER OVER SOUTHERN FA CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGESTS A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MARTIN/ST
LUCIE COASTLINE THIS AFTN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT DEVELOP
NORTHWARD INTO INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHERN BREVARD AS WELL BUT REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE COAST. SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPE.

GFS SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS 2-2.25") SITTING ON TOP OF
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING
IN ACROSS N/C CENTRAL FL. WILL SHOW A POP TREND OF 40% FROM ORLANDO
NORTHWARD INCREASING TO 60% DOWN ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WILL NEED
TO WATCH DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZE TODAY AS IT WILL LIKELY PLAY A
ROLE IN INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF THE CAPE...PRODUCING LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR
STRONGER LONGER-LIVED STORMS CONTAINING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
WILL INCLUDE VERY LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO IN THE HWO/GHWO SOUTH OF
THE CAPE...THOUGH SFC-H85 WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES REDUCING THE SPEED SHEAR.

THU-FRI...MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON THE LEE SIDE OF REMNANT FRANCES WL
GET DRAWN SOUTHWARD WITH MOST PRONOUNCED EFFECTS IN THE FORM OF A
LOCALLY DRIER AIRMASS. GFS AND TO SOME DEGREE ETA INDICATE
ADDITIONAL DRYING ASCD WITH WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA. POPS GENERALLY
CLIMO WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH BY FRI.

WEEKEND...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PENINSULA AT MIDWEEK LIFTS WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA BY SAT. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ACT TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN
MARINE SHOWERS. MORNING SHOWERS WL TRANSITION INLAND DURING TIME OF
AFTERNOON HEATING AND EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS
EACH DAY.

EXTENDED...CURRENT HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST UNSETTLING WITH APPROACH
TO WESTERN CUBA PROJECTED AROUND LATE SUNDAY AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK ON HPC MANUAL PROGS.
GLOBAL MODELS EXHIBIT A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MOVEMENT OF
SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK AND LOCAL EFFECTS...IF ANY SHOULD BECOME
CLEARER ONCE TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE CONUS CLEARS UP.
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE DEEP ELY FLOW WITH A STRONG MARINE INFLUENCE
OVER THE AREA.

&&.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LOWERING SEAS/WINDS OVER THE
MARINE AREA POST FRANCES. BASED ON RECENT CONDITIONS THE CAUTION
MENTION WILL BE RESERVED FOR THE NORTHERN SEGMENT THIS MORNING. WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP ALL HEADLINES ON THE MID MORNING UPDATE.
EXPECT A TRANSITION TO THE EASTERLY REGIME ON FRI WITH A STEADY
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS IVAN APPROACHES CUBA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 90 73 89 74 / 40 20 40 20
MCO 90 74 90 74 / 40 20 40 20
MLB 90 74 87 74 / 50 30 50 20
VRB 90 74 88 74 / 60 30 50 20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM...PENDERGRAST