18:00 Tropical models join the globals

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040907 1800 040908 0600 040908 1800 040909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 61.2W 12.3N 64.5W 13.0N 67.8W 14.0N 70.7W
BAMM 11.8N 61.2W 11.8N 64.7W 12.3N 67.9W 13.1N 70.6W
A98E 11.8N 61.2W 12.1N 64.6W 12.4N 67.7W 12.9N 70.7W
LBAR 11.8N 61.2W 12.4N 64.4W 13.5N 68.0W 14.9N 71.5W
SHIP 100KTS 104KTS 110KTS 114KTS
DSHP 100KTS 104KTS 110KTS 114KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040909 1800 040910 1800 040911 1800 040912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 73.4W 15.9N 77.1W 17.0N 79.3W 20.3N 80.9W
BAMM 14.1N 73.0W 15.9N 76.8W 17.8N 79.3W 21.2N 81.8W
A98E 13.2N 73.3W 14.1N 77.3W 15.1N 80.3W 18.1N 81.9W
LBAR 16.1N 74.9W 18.2N 80.0W 19.1N 78.1W 22.1N 82.3W
SHIP 117KTS 119KTS 125KTS 122KTS
DSHP 117KTS 99KTS 86KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 61.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 57.8W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 54.4W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 95KT
CENPRS = 956MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 140NM

Will the NHC at 5 PM shift their track more right?

[Canelaw99]

Picture?????? Please....????

[Brent]

UKMET has a direct hit on the Keys and South Florida from the south.



Why would they shift to the right?

[PurdueWx80]

These are left of the 12Z models.

[Canelaw99]

What's up with the LBAR?? Hope Ivan uses his signal on that track!

[Frank P]

I agree, they should not shift right, probably be very similar to 11:00 am track... or a little to the left, but not much... IMO

[Brent]

What's up with the LBAR?? Hope Ivan uses his signal on that track!

LOL! Looks like he wants to torture Jamaica.

[Canelaw99]

The 11am NHC track seems to be further west than most of these more recent model runs, IMO, so that means the NHC would have to shift their track a bit to the right.....

[x-y-no]

What will Avila think? The "highly reliable" GFDL heads for the Yucatan, but the "highly reliable" GFS heads for Naples ...

[canegrl04]

I'm getting dizzy with all these model changes from hour to hour

[Canelaw99]

That's Avila now, probably

[blizzard20]

where could i get this map or link for this site ok

[BReb]

The UKMET which leads to south Florida is already off- seems to assume WNW track starting hours ago. Of course, that didn't happen.

[calidoug]

It's been heading wnw. How do you think it got to grenada?

Look at the loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormcenter]

If the GFDL says it's going through the Yucatan then believe me the NHC is going to put alot weight on that, NO DOUBT about it. That is their baby/No.1 model. Now that's not to say they may not change their mind
and side with other models but they won't ignore GDLF all together as
with some other models.
To be honest with you based on "current" motion and rate of speed. I just don't see those hard rights the other models are showing. But hey
what do I know I'm just a weather nut.

[ericinmia]

It's been heading wnw. How do you think it got to grenada?

Look at the loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

i concur...
-Eric

[Matthew5]

That outflow is Amazing!

[x-y-no]

To be honest with you based on "current" motion and rate of speed. I just don't see those hard rights the other models are showing. But hey
what do I know I'm just a weather nut.

Well, you'll notice the GFDL is in pretty good agreement with the others all the way to Jamaica.

[cycloneye]

As more far west Ivan goes the 12UTC UKMET is not right because for that scenario from that model to occur it has to begin to turn WNW about now but still it is moving 275 west at 18 mph.

[Canelaw99]

Definitely looking NW to me, and yeah, he's looking A LOT healthier right now