11am Ivan-115 mph winds, 963 mb pressure

[Brent]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast/Advisory Number 21

Statement as of 15:00Z on September 07, 2004

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Trinidad...Tobago...St.
Vincent...The Grenadines...and Grenada and its dependencies.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barbados...Martinique...
and St. Lucia.

At 11 am AST...1500z..the government of the Netherlands Antilles has
issued a Hurricane Watch for Bonaire..Curacao and Aruba.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean
Sea should closely monitor the progress of Ivan.

Hurricane center located near 11.8n 60.2w at 07/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west or 280 degrees at 16 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 963 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt.
64 kt....... 60ne 15se 15sw 60nw.
50 kt....... 90ne 30se 30sw 90nw.
34 kt.......140ne 60se 60sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..200ne 140se 140sw 200nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 11.8n 60.2w at 07/1500z
at 07/1200z center was located near 11.6n 59.4w

forecast valid 08/0000z 12.3n 62.5w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 25se 25sw 60nw.
50 kt... 90ne 45se 45sw 90nw.
34 kt...140ne 70se 70sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 13.0n 65.6w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 40se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt... 90ne 60se 60sw 90nw.
34 kt...150ne 80se 80sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 09/0000z 14.0n 68.5w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 40se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt... 90ne 70se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...150ne 100se 90sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 09/1200z 15.0n 71.5w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
50 kt... 90ne 80se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 140se 90sw 160nw.

Forecast valid 10/1200z 17.5n 76.0w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
50 kt...100ne 100se 70sw 100nw.
34 kt...160ne 160se 100sw 160nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 11/1200z 19.5n 80.0w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.

Outlook valid 12/1200z 22.0n 83.0w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 11.8n 60.2w

next advisory at 07/2100z

forecaster Avila

[Brent]

Sunday Morning position is over The Isle of Youth as a Cat 4...