Ivan getting his act together?

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AussieMark
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Ivan getting his act together?

#1 Postby AussieMark » Tue Sep 07, 2004 3:38 am

Does Ivan seem to be getting his act together this morning

Image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
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dennis1x1

#2 Postby dennis1x1 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 3:44 am

yep....965mb.....107kt flight level...
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#3 Postby Ixolib » Tue Sep 07, 2004 3:51 am

I think once he gets to around 65W, and a little more north, he will really start to get his act together. Seems the proximity to SA continues to impede the southerly outflow.
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#4 Postby ColinD » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:54 am

Been getting it together since yesterday afternoon but still some problems. The pressure is only a few mbs lower than the first recon run yesterday afternoon at 2pm ET. One thing that has been obviously missing is a warm eye. The center of circulation has been cool.
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#5 Postby Lowpressure » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:58 am

Looks much better this morning. I still think this will me a monster in the central carib.
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#6 Postby ColinD » Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:15 am

Best it's looked in the past 24 hours.
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#7 Postby AussieMark » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:17 am

isn't a cold eye what we look for on infared.
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#8 Postby ColinD » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:20 am

tropicalweatherwatcher wrote:isn't a cold eye what we look for on infared.


Warm eye surrounded by cold tops = more intense. The Dvorak technique, for example, estimates the difference in temperature between the eye and the surrounding cloudtops.
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#9 Postby Aquawind » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:21 am

IR picks up Cold cloud tops..No clouds in the eye means warmer air in the eye.. :wink:
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#10 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:24 am

By tomorrow he should really be getting his act together. :eek:
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#11 Postby JQ Public » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:26 am

By just leaving my mouse on the eye of an earlier frame of Ivan on the satellite I notice a slight northward component to the 'cane. Either this or his center shifted north a little since i last saw the satellite last night.
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#12 Postby clueless newbie » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:55 am

I don't know. We hear "Ivan is strenghtening" for how many hours now?

The fact is that it looks really lumpy this morning - the way Frances looked before her core disintegrated. The separated strong feeder band to its SW is not going to help him either. The outflow is not as impressive as it was before. Yes, deep convection is all the way around the eye, not only on the N side. Still, it looks rather ill for a Cat3 cane.

I think it will struggle for at least 1-2 days more.
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#13 Postby Innotech » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:57 am

clueless newbie wrote:I don't know. We hear "Ivan is strenghtening" for how many hours now?

The fact is that it looks really lumpy this morning - the way Frances looked before her core disintegrated. The separated strong feeder band to its SW is not going to help him either. The outflow is not as impressive as it was before. Yes, deep convection is all the way around the eye, not only on the N side. Still, it looks rather ill for a Cat3 cane.

I think it will struggle for at least 1-2 days more.


Im hoping it falls apart in the southeast Caribbean
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#14 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 7:59 am

clueless newbie wrote:I don't know. We hear "Ivan is strenghtening" for how many hours now?

The fact is that it looks really lumpy this morning - the way Frances looked before her core disintegrated. The separated strong feeder band to its SW is not going to help him either. The outflow is not as impressive as it was before. Yes, deep convection is all the way around the eye, not only on the N side. Still, it looks rather ill for a Cat3 cane.

I think it will struggle for at least 1-2 days more.


Check the latest vortex message - 17NM circular eye, 7 degree inside/outside temperature gradient, 6 degree cent. temperature/dewpoint difference ...

That's a healthy storm.
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