DT Still believes a Miami landfall.....

[ericinmia]

check here for his report:

http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurrica ... m#ANALYSIS:

And here is something of interest, and summation from his article....
He did a typo that you'll notice.... i corrected it... it is with the first prediction from miami to jax... he meant miami to daytona...

As I posted before my Number 1 traget area is Miami to Daytona 2nd Keys to Miami 3rd North of Day to Jax. Earlier -- I gave percentages of 50% for area 1... 40% area 2... 10% area 3.

Now it is area 1 -MIA to DAY - increased to 65%... Area2 Keys to Miami 25%... AREAS 3 -- DAY to JAX 10%.

This should be an interesting couple days! I am going to prepare one way or another, and trust the NHC; however, if this pans out differently i am going to lose much faith in the NHC.
-Eric

[lilbump3000]

Well if you read the latest discussion from the NHC, south flordia is still not really in the clear as the models basicly had to high weaker than what it is. So yes it will be interesting these next couple of days.

[Canelaw99]

Yeah - we're not out of the woods yet. It surprises me a bit that we have TS watches up all the way to the 7 Mile Bridge which is the last major bridge, essentially, before the lower Keys & in towards Key West. That seems like a long way west if they're thinking a Central FL landfall, to me.....

[rtd2]

"south flordia is still not really in the clear as the models basicly had to high weaker than what it is"




YEP!

[lilbump3000]

I mean with the high centered at 30N 75W, thats pretty close to frances and i cant see how she will possibly move anymore north than what she is doing now. If this contiunes she might just keep moving WNW until landfall.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Sounds logical to me lilbump....at least I believe it'll stay on that WNW course for a good while longer. I wonder if DT is going to raise his scenario 2 percentage any after seeing the NHC discussion.