Looks like Frances is GOM bound

[MGC]

Looking more and more like Frances will strike near the southern extent of my forecast area, West Palm Beach. Frances will cross Florida and emerge into the GOM. Tampa may yet see hurricane conditions.....MGC

[StJoe]

I'm with you on that! We are anticipating a Cat 5 here in West Palm Beach...

[inotherwords]

I have not seen any technical explanations for why it will cross the state into GOM as opposed to going up the central part or up the coast. Can you or someone else explain why you think it's going in to GOM? I don't doubt what you say I"m just wanting a better understanding of why. Thanks.

[southerngale]

Not according to the NHC projected path. Are they too far north?

[rbaker]

have to wait until it gets to that 75 long w line before im saying gom. Also, tpc is saying frances is going to slow down. Is that because of a more nw turn, depends on timing of turn, if it materlizes.

[dwinpcola]

just my thought , if the storm does not turn by thursday late afternoon, I say GOM.

we shall see

dw

[rtd2]

quote" I have not seen any technical explanations for why it will cross the state into GOM as opposed to going up the central part or up the coast. Can you or someone else explain why you think it's going in to GOM? I don't doubt what you say I"m just wanting a better understanding of why. Thanks."




Hope its alright if I chime in on this since I've been saying S.FLA or Keys then GOMEX....Its all about the ridge and spped of the storms. I never said the Ridge would not weaken the ? is when It will weaken early in track would allow a nw turn later in the track puts Frances through S.FLA or Keys into GOMEX then NW TO NNW I think the models are jhaving trouble picking an agreed time as to when the ridge breaks down... until then frances stays on the bottom of the ridge wnw or w

[rtd2]

quote" I have not seen any technical explanations for why it will cross the state into GOM as opposed to going up the central part or up the coast. Can you or someone else explain why you think it's going in to GOM? I don't doubt what you say I"m just wanting a better understanding of why. Thanks."




Hope its alright if I chime in on this since I've been saying S.FLA or Keys then GOMEX....Its all about the ridge and spped of the storms. I never said the Ridge would not weaken the ? is when It will weaken early in track would allow a nw turn later in the track puts Frances through S.FLA or Keys into GOMEX then NW TO NNW I think the models are jhaving trouble picking an agreed time as to when the ridge breaks down... until then frances stays on the bottom of the ridge wnw or w

[Josephine96]

I'll be expecting a strong cat 2 or 3 when it passes through here I'm sure

[CFL]

I'm not yet convinced it will enter the Gulf, but with each passing advisory and no NW turn I think the possibilities are there.

[PTrackerLA]

Definately think Frances will make it to the gulf but not too concerned here yet. Thinking the second landfall will be in the panhandle/AL area.