How do the models turn a Cat 4/5 storm north with no trough?

[logybogy]

This is lunacy. The storm is strong enough to create its own environment and fight off phantom "weaknesses."

Look at the track. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see this storm has continued to go left of the model tracks. This has been the pattern for days....

[Canelaw99]

I completely agree and am absolutely baffled as to why they seem to insist on pulling it north. I just don't know how it's going to fall into the path they're predicting for Frances.

[x-y-no]

Add me to the baffled club.

Maybe it'll happen but I shure as heck don't know why.

[logybogy]

This thing is going to plow right into South Florida by Friday morning if it doesn't slow down or move significantly north.

The NHC may have dropped the ball big time relying on their stupid models. This is potentially a life threatening situation. South Florida is not taking this storm seriously yet!!!!

[mobilebay]

me too. In fact if you look at the 06z GFS it has it moving due north into a 1030MB ridge directly over it.

[Canelaw99]

In defense of a lot of us here in S. FL, a lot of people are taking this storm seriously after seeing what happened with Charley. I went to Publix and Home Depot yesterday, and there were a lot of people stocking up on the essential supplies. It's nice to see. Now, of course, some of our stores' supplies have been depleted because they were sent to help Charley victims, but it's nice to see so many taking necessary precautions.

That said, I DO think the NHC has dropped the ball with this one. I think Charley scared them and they're being too cautious and conservative with Frances. I am afraid that it's going to come back to bite them, at our expense.

[pavelbure224]

South Florida is taking this storm seriously people have been getting ready since Saturday. I live in south fl. I have never seen south florida doing preperations so early. Charley scared a lot of people here on the SE Fl coast.

[Guest]

Scientifically I believe since we have had only one major hurricane Andrew hit SFl in the last 20 years not enough is known about these storms.

[mobilebay]

South Florida is taking this storm seriously people have been getting ready since Saturday. I live in south fl. I have never seen south florida doing preperations so early. Charley scared a lot of people here on the SE Fl coast.

sorry, but what does this have to do with this topic?

[logybogy]

This looks like a South Florida storm. I really fear that this is going to plow right into South Florida as a strengthing Cat 4/5 and some people are going to lose their lives because they haven't taken the warnings seriously and belive these models that it will move north.

[mobilebay]

This looks like a South Florida storm. I really fear that this is going to plow right into South Florida as a strengthing Cat 4/5 and some people are going to lose their lives because they haven't taken the warnings seriously and belive these models that it will move north.

I think it will go into south florida also. However, past tracks have absolutly nothing to do with the future track of this cane.

[jlauderdal]

This thing is going to plow right into South Florida by Friday morning if it doesn't slow down or move significantly north.

The NHC may have dropped the ball big time relying on their stupid models. This is potentially a life threatening situation. South Florida is not taking this storm seriously yet!!!!

they have bent the track back based on the models and the fact they had corrupted data in the models. The track has been exceptional and continues to be basically on course just a little south. Listen, just because they change a point 72 hours out by 150 miles does not mean they wcrewed up. The NHC is not going to make major track changes at 72h. In fact that change they mad at 5am was rather significant now if it continues to look like South Florida they will change it and they will still be within 60 miles of the 5 am.

[FloridaDiver]

This is lunacy. The storm is strong enough to create its own environment and fight off phantom "weaknesses."

Look at the track. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see this storm has continued to go left of the model tracks. This has been the pattern for days....

This is not quite true…. remember Andrew was making a very definitive course and many mets claimed that he was making his own path and nothing would change, lucky for the metropolitan areas of Miami and Ft. Lauderdale, Andrew decided to take a last minute dive south and make landfall away from any major city. However, your point has much merit, since Francis is a much bigger storm and the majority of models are pointing to a more southern track, you observation may materialize and the NHC will likely shift their track left at the next advisory. Wherever the track finally ends up, two items come to mind… first, with a storm of this size the majority of the FL East Coast will be affected. And unfortunately the second point is that wherever the core of this monster lands, it will be like 92 all over again, but in a larger scale.

[TLHR]

To answer the initial question.

Disney magic...

[btsgmdad]

When you wish upon a star?

[Patrick99]

When you wish upon a star?

Oh, no worries. The Gulf Stream will turn it to the north.

I can't believe how often I still hear that coming out of my fellow S. Floridians' mouths.

[dolphinslady]

South Florida is not taking this storm seriously yet!!!!

Haven't people learned from past experience, specifically what just happened with Charley, that there is a reason for a 'projected path'? If you are inside that cone, you must prepare. If people choose not to, it's their own stupidity. Ridiculous.

People here on the treasure coast have been taking Frances seriously since yesterday. Generators were sold out early yesterday morning and plywood was gone off of shelves early this morning. (even after truckloads came in last night.) People were waiting in lines at HD/Lowes since 2:00 this morning. So, the tri county area here is preparing.

I am scared as can be here in Vero. I have twin 2 1/2 yo girls and ALL of our family live in this area. However, we are as prepared as we can be I guess. Now it's just a wait and see and **sigh**, hope.

It's better to take the time to prepare and be safe than to take the risk.

[sfwx]

"Oh, no worries. The Gulf Stream will turn it to the north."

That's EXACTLY what a WPB weekend Met said on Sunday. I couldn't believe what I heard......

Eric