The OOZ GFS JUST OFF

mobilebay · #1 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:17 pm

South/central FLorida East coast 102 hours. This is alot further westward than earlier runs

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:20 pm

Is there more bad news or that's it? Because every news that I hear looks more and more bad for me.

jaysonx · #3 Postby **jaysonx** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:21 pm

All of the models are starting to agree.. which is a bad sign for central / south florida. Everyone in eastern Florida should start making emergency preperations now if they have not already started.

frankthetank · #4 Postby **frankthetank** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:22 pm

model link???

mobilebay · #5 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:25 pm

Through 120 hours it is basicly stalled over South/Central Florida. Folks this getting scary. :cry:

frankthetank · #6 Postby **frankthetank** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:28 pm

never mind..i found it

#7 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:30 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Is there more bad news or that's it? Because every news that I hear looks more and more bad for me.

Yes I think there will be tomorrow morning or this morning depending what time zone you're in.

mobilebay · #8 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:31 pm

frankthetank wrote:

never mind..i found it

Sorry Frank. I missed your post.

#9 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:33 pm

IT's almost the same as the 18z run...BUT...the trough over the rockies is a lot further west. BIG implications there.

Also...there were no GIV missions tonight...so the 00z run is using the same data to some extent.

#10 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:34 pm

This is getting pretty scary. I would not be surprised if by 5pm Wednesday, we could see some Hurricane Watches posted for the Florida east coast. Im gettin ready for sure.

<RICKY>

TexasSam · #11 Postby **TexasSam** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:47 pm

let's see Dang! I was going to use the cuss word! :eek:

mobilebay · #12 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:59 pm

This GFS is further west with this run than it has been in about two days. Like I said in another post, the GFS is bad on trough timing alot. HOw many times have I read on NWS discussions that frontal passage will be delayed because the GFS was too fast.

#13 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:00 am

mobilebay wrote:This GFS is further west with this run than it has been in about two days. Like I said in another post, the GFS is bad on trough timing alot. HOw many times have I read on NWS discussions that frontal passage will be delayed because the GFS was too fast.

Yep...and the trough it was moving into the ridge is now back 250 miles.

No recurve on this thing. Florida here she comes.

#14 Postby **NateFLA** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:01 am

Sitting here in tampa right now, twiddling my thumbs.

Things keep looking more and more like charley would have been a nice break compared to this if it skirts us.

I imagine its time to start getting prepared, no?

The question is, with a hit like this, is 1/2" plywood really going to help? Especially in a 19th century house. I'm more worried about the roof here, and the poor folks that have already gotten damage from charley.

I was down there helping, and there is no way those poor people can take something like this right now.

Florida is not having a good summer.

Ajarens · #15 Postby **Ajarens** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:03 am

AFM:

What do you mean when you say no Recurve? No NW component and a pretty basic WNW track through florida into the GOM? Or are you saying no recurve that would allow a GA, SC, NC landfall?

I just moved here from Chicago. I have a 15 month old son and live 10 miles north of Gainesville off the U of F campus. Would it be wise to send my wife and son heading up to our home in Gatlinburg, TN?

mobilebay · #16 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:05 am

Air Force Met wrote:
mobilebay wrote:This GFS is further west with this run than it has been in about two days. Like I said in another post, the GFS is bad on trough timing alot. HOw many times have I read on NWS discussions that frontal passage will be delayed because the GFS was too fast.

Yep...and the trough it was moving into the ridge is now back 250 miles.

No recurve on this thing. Florida here she comes.

Also did you notice the streangth of that ridge off the Northeast. I Don't see how those NOAH missions helped on a trough recurve out 120 hours anyway AIRFORCE MET. However, the NHC continued to mention them like they would make a difference. Sorry about my spelling.

#17 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:05 am

Ajarens wrote:AFM:

What do you mean when you say no Recurve? No NW component and a pretty basic WNW track through florida into the GOM? Or are you saying no recurve that would allow a GA, SC, NC landfall?

I just moved here from Chicago. I have a 15 month old son and live 10 miles north of Gainesville off the U of F campus. Would it be wise to send my wife and son heading up to our home in Gatlinburg, TN?

A recurve that would allow for a GA/SC/NC landfall. It will eventually recurves...but not before it hits Florida.

mobilebay · #18 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:14 am

Also, there is no Guarantee of that trough at the new GFS time. IF it where delayed again that would mean an even more westward movement before recurve(slower also). THis time of year fronts have a hard time barreling down the CONUS . So timing out 120 hours on any model would be poor. If this where the end of September it would be more cut and dry.

Rainband · #19 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 2:15 am

Steering currents are forecast to collaspe?? :eek:

#20 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Sep 01, 2004 2:18 am

^:cry:

The OOZ GFS JUST OFF

The OOZ GFS JUST OFF

Tampa bracing for impact?

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