Frances Synoptic

[Sanibel]

WV loop shows Gaston jacking the trough as I speculated yesterday. It is now coming over the top of the ridge more with the zonal flow pushing it from behind.

I believe this recent WNW jog is reflecting contact with the pulse sent into the ridge by the exiting Gaston. Watch now how the ridge fills back in after Gaston leaves and how it affects Frances.

The lower part of the CONUS divide is still being held in check by the ridge nudging west. The models are obviously recognizing this feature as fixed and bringing Frances up into mild recurve in front of it. That is why it is important to see if Frances jogs back true west again after the ridge fills in from Gaston's exit. WV shows a marked terminus for the CONUS divide in the southern Gulf states. This could possibly register a weak spot allowing the ridge to linger in the SE GOM areas.

GFDL

This model has now committed to a South Carolina landfall. Interesting that it peaks Frances tonight at 146 knots! - then gradually decreases intensity all the way up to landfall. I believe this model has significantly erred because Frances isn't intensifying that fast. Nor does the model recognize the over Gulf Stream potential of a venting ULL located to her SW!

AVN

A previous left-runner has now shifted to an oblique Jacksonville coast landfall in a straightening recurve. It is also obviously now recognizing the US trough.


We are still in the same downrange synoptic evolution scenario as yesterday, except the models are now touching the unmoving CONUS divide. Later tonight we will see how Gaston affects the angle of the trough border and how much the ridge stands its ground underneath it and around Florida...

[Josephine96]

I still think the model shift to the north is way too far north.. Central Florida coast is probably still in the bulls eye.. just mho

[Sanibel]

The intensification I called for last night has finally materialized. Frances dropped to 942 on the latest vortex message. She has a slow-fuse tendency, so the trend has taken overnight. It was hard to reconcile her going from 120mph last night to 135mph today with steady pressure.

Right now Frances has shot an overhead outflow in an intensification phase. She also appears to be picking up forward speed.

The most critical thing right now is where she hits the Turks & Caicos Islands. She will either correct slightly back west or continue her present 283* veer. Otherwise there's no doubt she is going for intensity right now...