18Z Recon on approach - vortex data message update

[PurdueWx80]

Frances clearly has the look of a classic hurricane. The eye has been consistently clearing out this morning, outflow is still immaculate, and the CDO is symmetric and circular. I have no doubt this storm has dropped pressure like crazy today. A first guess would be close to 935. If she continues on this trend, she'll be a Cat 5 this evening. I see nothing to stop that from happening. I'll post the VDM when it arrives shortly.

update w/ new VDM:

URNT12 KNHC 311730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1730Z
B. 20 DEG 19 MIN N
64 DEG 53 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2597 M
D. 50 KT
E. 133 DEG 075 NM
F. 215 DEG 105 KT
G. 121 DEG 009 NM
H. 942 MB
I. 13 C/ 3031 M
J. 24 C/ 3029 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C27
N. 12345/07
O. 0.2/1 NM
P. AF985 1006A FRANCES OB 04
MAX FL WIND 105 KT SE QUAD 1727Z.

Will be interesting to see what they find in the N or NE quadrant.

[Lowpressure]

She is even displaying the classic stiations in the canopy spiraling out from the eye. ala Isabel and Floyd.

[canegrl04]

Brace yourselves for a cat 5 headed for Florida

[canegrl04]

Brace yourselves for a cat 5 headed for Florida

[btsgmdad]

It also looks as if they will find a WNW movement. The past few frames have been very pronounced. Now looks like N to Central Florida landfall.

[PurdueWx80]

bump - added new vdm...pressure down to 942

[seaswing]

Purdue~ what is your feeling about this storm? where do you believe it will head?

[PurdueWx80]

My projected landfall zone is still between Miami and Cape Canaveral. It is a bit further south than many models at this point, but I still have reason to believe the Pacific NW trough amplification late this week will allow the ridge to be strong enough to the north of Frances so that she goes in on a WNW-NW heading somewhere along the FL peninsula. Worst case scenario is obviously a parallelling of the coastline. That kind of damage is beyond imagination, and Florida's economy would be shunted considerably. I don't think this will happen (parallel the coast), but that is again the worse case scenario. I have a feeling evacuations on the order of Floyd will be announced once we get to within 60 hours of landfall (Thursday-ish). I never thought I would call Charley a blessing, but that storm really woke up Floridians to what can happen with these, and I don't think many people will second guess Mother Nature this time.

[Canelaw99]

I think that Charley did wake up a lot of us...I went to Publix & Home Depot already today, and saw a lot of people stocking up on the typical 'cane essentials, especially water. It's nice to see everyone taking this seriously, well, most anyway. I live in Homestead, and I'm sure a lot of the people here are having Andrew flashbacks...I know I would be if I'd been here then.