Why is the NHC and local mets hiding: ECMWF from public?

[ericinmia]

It has been consistant now through over 10 runs, for many days!
It predicted almost perfectly multiple storms of this kind before.
Dr. Gray even stated last night that he didn't understand why it was not getting any basis.

Here it is again for those that might not have seen it...
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

-Eric

[HeatherAKC]

Funny, I was just listening to Zeta morning show (94.9FM) on the way in to work this AM. They had Forecaster Rome on the show from the NHC. The two hosts were arguing about the track to Frances. So one of the hosts point blank asked him...."Are there any models that have this storm heading into South Florida". He said yes, but that everyone from NC to W.Cuba needs to watch. He said that about 5 times in the 4 minute segment.

[kittcat]

That's called CYA.

[ericinmia]

lol, i can see that in my head! hahaha
-Eric

[BUD]

Run this model again around 10am it might change because it did not pick up the front forming in the northwest.That is (one) of the reasons why the models are changing and because of the ULL near the Bahamas.AND a local MET showed a forecast model and it put it near wilm,NC.

[Guest]

Well look at this site
http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm and click on can i see models please, it has nogap. ava.ukmet etc.. on it another person at another board said i didnot know what i was talking about when it is right there on this site? is this model site NO GOOD?

[Guest]

Run this model again around 10am it might change because it did not pick up the front forming in the northwest.That is (one) of the reasons why the models are changing and because of the ULL near the Bahamas.AND a local MET showed a forecast model and it put it near wilm,NC.

That trough is to far to affect Frances on the approach.What it will do is build the ridge even stronger.The GFS doesnt see that yet but it will because it too is further west on the latest run.This is a Fla storm whether its South central or north is still in quesion but it is a Fla storm.

[Guest]

oh and look at NCEP Model Analysis and forecast

[Guest]

Mia -cane i don't wish this storm on anyone good luck i have a question so the models aren't showing the the ridge ?

[ericinmia]

Run this model again around 10am it might change because it did not pick up the front forming in the northwest.That is (one) of the reasons why the models are changing and because of the ULL near the Bahamas.AND a local MET showed a forecast model and it put it near wilm,NC.

Look carefully, it does pickup a low front there... but not very powerful, and stalled out...
-Eric

[Derecho]

It also failed to even initialize Charley as a storm repeatedly, and then when it finally did, it showed Charley hitting Houston, Texas.

[cape_escape]

Run this model again around 10am it might change because it did not pick up the front forming in the northwest.That is (one) of the reasons why the models are changing and because of the ULL near the Bahamas.AND a local MET showed a forecast model and it put it near wilm,NC.

That trough is to far to affect Frances on the approach.What it will do is build the ridge even stronger.The GFS doesnt see that yet but it will because it too is further west on the latest run.This is a Fla storm whether its South central or north is still in quesion but it is a Fla storm.

I went over some early Charley posts, and I believe you were one of the first to peg where Charley was going. So, I listen to your views here and look forward to seeing your ideas as this progresses.

[PurdueWx80]

It also failed to even initialize Charley as a storm repeatedly, and then when it finally did, it showed Charley hitting Houston, Texas.

Charley wasn't a classic CV storm like Frances is. The Euro does much better with larger, stronger systems that come from Africa. I would give it a lot more credit if it hadn't gone so berzerk with Charley. I have to give it a few extra browney points for being a little more consistent than the other models though.

[Derecho]

Dr. Gray even stated last night that he didn't understand why it was not getting any basis.

Do you mean Dr. Gray or Gary Gray, btw? Two different people.

[Guest]

Dr. Gray even stated last night that he didn't understand why it was not getting any basis.

Do you mean Dr. Gray or Gary Gray, btw? Two different people.

And Im sure there's a

Dr. Adam Gray
Dr. Bill Gray
Dr. Carl Gray
Dr. Dick Gray
Dr. Earl Gray <- I wonder if he likes tea?

etc.

I would say the poster was talking about Dr. Gray, but maybe the poster was talking about Gary Gray btw.

[rtd2]

quote"Charley wasn't a classic CV storm like Frances is. The Euro does much better with larger, stronger systems that come from Africa. I would give it a lot more credit if it hadn't gone so berzerk with Charley. I have to give it a few extra browney points for being a little more consistent than the other models though."




exactly! Charley was very ragged and weak up to almost landfall before rapidly strenthening. I think francis core is larger and as strong as charley at landfall.... this model has been very good with early strong storms like floyd and mitch and maybe francis:eek: