50-year climo versus 2004

#1 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:14 pm

Below is an extention of my normal "Such and such date and storm brought to you by such and such letter." Below I've listed each named storm this season. The second column lists on what day that storm reached tropical storm status. Column three lists the average (based on a 50-year data set) number of named storms on that particular date with the comparison to this year in parenthesis. The fourth column lists the average day that letter of storm normally forms with the departure of this year in parenthesis. Finally, I've listed the percentage of storms that are in the 50 year data set. At the bottom, I've listed the other topics that I've posted, giving a complete breakdown of each system. Enjoy!

For example: With Alex this year, he formed on August 1st. Typically on August 1st we see 1.5 named storms, leaving 2004 to be 0.5 storms behind average. The typical "A" storm forms on July 4th, leaving 2004 to be 28 days behind schedule. In the past 50 years, an A-name was used 100% of the time.

Code: Select all

Alex       Aug 01   01.50 (-0.50)   Jul 04 (-28)   100%
Bonnie     Aug 09   02.00 (+0.00)   Aug 04 (-05)   100%
Charley    Aug 10   01.98 (+1.02)   Aug 15 (+05)   100%
Danielle   Aug 13   02.18 (+1.82)   Aug 26 (+13)   100%
Earl       Aug 14   02.32 (+2.68)   Sep 05 (+24)    96%
Frances    Aug 25   03.26 (+2.74)   Sep 15 (+21)    90%
Gaston     Aug 28   03.64 (+3.36)   Sep 19 (+22)    78%
Hermine    Aug 29   03.82 (+4.18)   Sep 21 (+23)    62%
Ivan       Sep 03   04.40 (+4.60)   Sep 25 (+22)    48%
Jeanne     Sep 14   05.59 (+4.02)   Oct 05 (+21)    46%
Karl       Sep 17   06.28 (+4.72)   Oct 18 (+31)    38%
Lisa       Sep 20   06.52 (+5.48)   Oct 17 (+27)    26%
Matthew    Oct 08   07.90 (+5.10)   Oct 20 (+12)    16%
Nicole     Oct 10   07.98 (+6.02)   Oct 21 (+11)    12%

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #2 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:21 pm

^bump^

...also, you can click about above links to view a listing of every named storm (by respective letter) for the past 50 years.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #3 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:52 am

^bump^

...for Ivan.

#4 Postby **Tertius** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:59 am

Amazing really. Nine named storms in 33 days.

yoda · #5 Postby **yoda** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:01 am

Tertius wrote:Amazing really. Nine named storms in 33 days.

That is one named storm per 3.666666 days.

#6 Postby **ncbird** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:14 am

The storms this year remind me of a mama bunny i had as a child with her babies. They just seemed to keep popping out non stop.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #7 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 6:46 pm

^bump^

...for Jeanne.

clueless newbie · #8 Postby **clueless newbie** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:06 pm

senorpepr wrote:Below is an extention of my normal "Such and such date and storm brought to you by such and such letter."
...
Code: Select all
Alex Aug 01 01.50 (-0.50) Jul 04 (-28) Bonnie Aug 09 02.00 (+0.00) Aug 04 (-05) Charley Aug 10 01.98 (+1.02) Aug 15 (+05) Danielle Aug 13 02.18 (+1.82) Aug 26 (+13) Earl Aug 14 02.32 (+2.68) Sep 05 (+24) Frances Aug 25 03.26 (+2.74) Sep 15 (+21) Gaston Aug 28 03.64 (+3.36) Sep 19 (+22) Hermine Aug 29 03.82 (+4.18) Sep 21 (+23) Ivan Sep 03 04.40 (+4.60) Sep 25 (+22) Jeanne Sep 14 05.59 (+4.02) Sep 22 (+08)

Check the date for average J storm. It should not be less then for I storm. :oops:

greeng13 · #9 Postby **greeng13** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:13 pm

that's a good point newbie...

#10 Postby **JtSmarts** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:15 pm

Great post, keep us updated, we appreciate all your research

#11 Postby **mascpa** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:15 pm

I was wondering about that myself.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #12 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:34 pm

clueless newbie wrote:Check the date for average J storm. It should not be less then for I storm.

Actually that date is right. See, the data set shrinks as we get further through the alphabet.

When we were on the C name, all 50 of the past years had a storm. Now that we're at J, only 23 years in the past 50 years had a J-storm. At this point we're weeding out the short seasons like 1992 and 1997. As a matter of fact, expect this similar trend to continue as the 50-year data set gets smaller and smaller.

(as an example, say we get to Tomas this year. In the past 50 years there has only been one occurance. So unlike with A-, B-, or C-names where you have 50-years worth of data to massage a nice average... T has Oct 27th as it's average data because 1995 was the only time it occurred. )

Hopefully this helps answer why J-named storms occur before I-named storms, in terms of averages.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #13 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:36 pm

senorpepr wrote:
clueless newbie wrote:Check the date for average J storm. It should not be less then for I storm.

Actually that date is right. See, the data set shrinks as we get further through the alphabet.

When we were on the C name, all 50 of the past years had a storm. Now that we're at J, only 23 years in the past 50 years had a J-storm. At this point we're weeding out the short seasons like 1992 and 1997. As a matter of fact, expect this similar trend to continue as the 50-year data set gets smaller and smaller.

(as an example, say we get to Tomas this year. In the past 50 years there has only been one occurance. So unlike with A-, B-, or C-names where you have 50-years worth of data to massage a nice average... T has Oct 27th as it's average data because 1995 was the only time it occurred. )

Hopefully this helps answer why J-named storms occur before I-named storms, in terms of averages.

For more information, check out the data on the following pages.

The I-storm data set is located at: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=41055

The J-storm data set is located at: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=45081

#14 Postby **Terry** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:50 pm

Okey Dokey, Senorpepr. I'm 55 and grew up on a SE FLA barrier island and this hurricane season almost seems like "home" to me --- except that there are about a zillion more people and structures along the coastlines.

P.S. --- we never, ever considered "evacuations" back then, in those pre-condo times.

cswitwer · #15 Postby **cswitwer** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:21 pm

Speaking of trends. I'm new to the East Coast, but a coworker who grew up in North Florida says that she never once experienced any hurricane threat during her childhood... she's just about 30.

Any trends showing they're forming and moving at higher latitudes? (Ivan being the exception of course)

Or is it just La Nina now & my friend was a lucky kid?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #16 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:42 am

okay... okay... I confess. I messed up. Disregard all the blabber I said about the changing data sets making the J-storm form earlier than the I-storm. Although it's possible, I did screw up in my calculations. You'll find the corrected numbers at the top.

Also....

I've added data for Karl.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #17 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 2:13 am

^bump^

...for Lisa.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #18 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 10:40 am

^bump^

...for Matthew.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #19 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Oct 10, 2004 3:49 am

^bump^

...for Nicole.

50-year climo versus 2004

50-year climo versus 2004

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Re: 50-year climo versus 2004

Re: 50-year climo versus 2004

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