NHC TRACK

[feederband]

Except for the sc\nc people I disagree with does the nw turn at end of track really seem that likely.

[Josephine96]

I don't know feeder.. I'm not buying into it very much lol

[golter]

Except for all the South Florida people I disagree with, does everyone else seem to think Frances will buck, computer models, climatology, and the worthless NHC and slam into Miami a Cat 6.

[Josephine96]

Just because we think it'll hit Florida doesn't mean we're people I disagree with lol

[dhweather]

Except for all the South Florida people I disagree with, does everyone else seem to think Frances will buck, computer models, climatology, and the worthless NHC and slam into Miami a Cat 6.

This made me laugh out loud.

[Nimbus]

With the increased forward speed it is possible Frances will outrun the ridge that is steering her. Have to wait and see tomorrow how the ridge is going to build in. I'm not feeling very safe on the west coast of Florida at this point.

[tdess02]

While we do need to follow the experts opinions at the NHC, we also need to take in to account what the storm is currently doing. The further due west she goes the more likely she slams into Florida. I do believe that the NHC is going to be shifting the track back more west, probably on Tuesday as they realize the fact that Florida will NOT be spared from this hurricane! Iam not a wish-caster. I live in south LA. and I surely dont want to see another hurricane hit the same areas that were just devastated 2 weeks ago. I am merely looking at all the facts.

[stormwatcher]

Take a look at the '99 floyd track. You in FL thought it was going in there then and look where it went. No one in the SE is out of the woods yet.

[Air Force Met]

Except for all the South Florida people I disagree with, does everyone else seem to think Frances will buck, computer models, climatology, and the worthless NHC and slam into Miami a Cat 6.

The NHC has actually changed the track some. Before...the 4 and 5 day points had it curving to the NW...and on a 300.

Now...they have it moving at 310 from days 4 and 5 with a lot less poleward curvature. If you extrapolate the 1st one out...it comes into SC. If you extrapolate the second one out...it comes into north Fl/GA.

I think there is still some ideas at the NHC that they want to keep the forecast off the coast as long as possible. Once they decide on where they think landfall will be...you will see the track shift in that direction and stay there. From day 3 to day 5 they only move it at 7 kts...and that's a little slow for a storm like this to move for 2 days straight. BUT...if they moved at at 10-12 kts they would have to bring it inland somewhere.

SO...I think they are keeping everyone on pins and needles as to avoid wholesale panic. Once they get a handle on it...that's when we can start talking about people I disagree with and the NHC is wrong and stuff. They aren't wrong on this...as you have said...they are just waiting as to avoid a panic because 200 miles of error is a big deal on the EC.

[feederband]

We in fl were told 5 days out floyd would turn and not landfall in fl the only thing i can tell with this is they aren't saying it will not hit fl.

[chris_fit]

interesting stuff

[LowMug]

Except for all the South Florida people I disagree with, does everyone else seem to think Frances will buck, computer models, climatology, and the worthless NHC and slam into Miami a Cat 6.

The NHC has actually changed the track some. Before...the 4 and 5 day points had it curving to the NW...and on a 300.

Now...they have it moving at 310 from days 4 and 5 with a lot less poleward curvature. If you extrapolate the 1st one out...it comes into SC. If you extrapolate the second one out...it comes into north Fl/GA.

I think there is still some ideas at the NHC that they want to keep the forecast off the coast as long as possible. Once they decide on where they think landfall will be...you will see the track shift in that direction and stay there. From day 3 to day 5 they only move it at 7 kts...and that's a little slow for a storm like this to move for 2 days straight. BUT...if they moved at at 10-12 kts they would have to bring it inland somewhere.

SO...I think they are keeping everyone on pins and needles as to avoid wholesale panic. Once they get a handle on it...that's when we can start talking about people I disagree with and the NHC is wrong and stuff. They aren't wrong on this...as you have said...they are just waiting as to avoid a panic because 200 miles of error is a big deal on the EC.

Thanks AFM...that does make total sense in the sense of creating a panic...however it is not good for "science" to "fudge" the numbers in a more positive light until more confident

[c5Camille]

AMF... you win the JACKPOT...
you are 100% correct...

[FlSteel]

I live in Jacksonville and I do not wish cast. Working for a power company I have seen far too many damage photos from Andrew and from Charley. I don't care where this thing goes it will not be pretty. I'm already starting my preps now. That last track has Frances paying me a visit or a "VERY" close visit ala Floyd this weekend. I'm not looking forward to this coming week.

[x-y-no]

I think there is still some ideas at the NHC that they want to keep the forecast off the coast as long as possible. Once they decide on where they think landfall will be...you will see the track shift in that direction and stay there. From day 3 to day 5 they only move it at 7 kts...and that's a little slow for a storm like this to move for 2 days straight. BUT...if they moved at at 10-12 kts they would have to bring it inland somewhere.

Interesting ...

But there is some model guidance for the slowdown. Both the LBAR and the BAMD slow her down again in days 4 and 5.

Still, I think there's something to what you say. Once the "official track" makes landfall, real financial and political consequences start taking place. So it actually makes good sense to delay that a bit until the confidence is better.

[Air Force Met]

Still, I think there's something to what you say. Once the "official track" makes landfall, real financial and political consequences start taking place. So it actually makes good sense to delay that a bit until the confidence is better.

Yeah...I bet on days like thos they regret the 4 and 5 day forecast change

[Agua]

AFM is one of this communities greatest assets. He always provides a thorough, non-condescending, and objective analysis of the issue presented to him.

[kittcat]

I'm no expert, but I think that the whole weather setup was different with Floyd. There was a huge trough plus Floyd never moved west like this one is doing. Yes, it did look like it was going to threaten Florida and we had a big hyped up media event and everybody went crazy. Some of the mets, one in particular, said from 5-7 days out that it would never be Florida. There were others as well.

I know that Florida has been threatened many times and we have been so lucky. Well, here we are again. No one knows. All we can do is just wait.

[Rainband]

Except for all the South Florida people I disagree with, does everyone else seem to think Frances will buck, computer models, climatology, and the worthless NHC and slam into Miami a Cat 6.

I highly doubt anyone wants this storm to hit them, especially us in florida Btw there is no sure thing as a cat 6 and yes I know you were being sarcastic.

[golter]

Floyd and Frances are different animals. Floyd was barely a TS at this point, but floyd did take a almost identically same trajectory through atlantic, but 4 degrees north of Frances.