Florida? Really???

[millibar]

First of all, hello everyone!
Long time "lurker", but I post seldom; would rather read and learn! A quick "thanks" for the designers / upkeepers of this site...it is really informative.

Its really a pleasure reading the posts from insightful meteorologists / storm trackers as Mike W, Vortex, Air Force Met, and the rest. You guys are great!

I do have a quick comment. First of all, I'm not one to try to fore(wish)cast storms, although I greatly enjoy tracking them. We've had enough of these storms of Mother Nature in my neck of the woods, and I wish none to visit here or anyone else's abode. But I will admit to being somewhat confused by the apparent assummation that Frances will slam into South Florida.

* All the models that I have seen over the past 48 hourd have ended their runs with a bend to the NW. "The trend is your friend."
* I know the GFDL has moved right, but the "great" GFS has flipped again. Also, the LBAR, which IMO has handled Frances best so far, has it approaching the SE Bahamas.
* I've seen the data from Canada; it appears to me that, timewise, the SE-building High will only prevent the system from recurvation seaward (a la fish storm).

Sooo, please help me out here...what am I missing??
I wish the best to all you Floridians if Frances comes a'calling; will be thinking of you!!!

Thanks for letting me have my 2 cents worth, and thanks again for this forum!!!

Best regards,
Millibar

[c5Camille]

a lot of it has to do with when and if Frances hits...
the first possible CONUS location possible is SF...
if the storm doesn't hit there... if will have to pass
by... They are in the cone...


and... there are a lot of people here fron SF...

[btsgmdad]

While we all hope that the French lady will be a fish, this looks like a South Florida event.

[c5Camille]

hey millibar, btsgmdad is in south florida...
obviously...

[72Packer]

I am supposed to be about 20 miles North of Nags Head, NC, next week(9/4 thru 9/11). While I know it is way too early to know where Frances will go, what are the educated guesses at percentages of a landfall in Florida vs NC at this time. Thanks for all the info you guys post here. I enjoy lurking and reading what you post--it is very informative and educational to the non-meterologist.

[c5Camille]

can't look beyond 3 days... then you have to
look at the cone...

bring a surfboard though... for sure!!

[c5Camille]

can't look beyond 3 days... then you have to
look at the cone...

bring a surfboard though... for sure!!

[Lindaloo]

Hey milli!! Glad you decided to post.

[btsgmdad]

Actually I live in Michigan. I have followed hurricanes religiously for approximately 15 years. I am not a forecaster (though I definitely missed my calling in life). I am just a humble observer processing all the wonderful information I have been getting on this board. My one and only prayer at this point is that the Lord spares everyone from this terrible storm. I just don't want to see another repeat of what happened just a short time ago with Charley. I know it must be a pain in the butt, however I would rather see millions of prudent evacuations to spare even one precious life.

[chris_fit]

No one knows where this thing is going anymore lol ... I dont think Frances knows either...

[millibar]

...away from Florida, by most models.
Hope this trend continues, and Frances visits the open Atlantic...
But I doubt it...

Regards,
Millibar

[caneman]

...away from Florida, by most models.
Hope this trend continues, and Frances visits the open Atlantic...
But I doubt it...

Regards,
Millibar

Indeed it does look to skirt the coast now. Looks to me like Frances will be from JAcksonville/St.Augistine and further North now. Of course things can change.