AFD NWS Key West

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KEYW 291825
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX RADAR HAS BEEN QUIET THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT SMALL AND WEAK ECHOES REMAIN ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERVICE AREA...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
CLOUD LINES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE BEING SUPPRESSED. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST TIP
OF THE MAINLAND. LIKE YESTERDAY...LIGHT TO SOMETIMES CALM WINDS HAVE
BEEN NOTED ALL AREAS TODAY.

.FORECASTS...
WEAK DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND BECOMING ALIGNED SW/NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL HAVE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES. GOES SOUNDER STILL INDICATES DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
ALIGNED ALONG THE KEYS AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT
...UNLESS KBYX NOTES SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS OR
WATERS SOON...OR THE MAINLAND DEVELOPMENT BEGINS TO SHOVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTO THE BAY AND GULF WATERS...PLAN TO CUT OUR
PRECIPITATION BACK TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TONIGHT. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW STAYS LIGHT BUT THERE IS A MORE DEFINED
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE OUR RAIN POSSIBILITIES IN THE LOWER CHANCE RANGE.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS HURRICANE FRANCES
CURRENTLY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ALL RESIDENTS IN THE KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TPC
FORECASTS FOR ANY TRACK...FORWARD SPEED...OR INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS.
THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS FRANCES CLOSE TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS BY
LATE THURSDAY AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WE MUST STRESS THAT FRANCES IS A POWERFUL HURRICANE AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. ANY
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. BASED ON THE LATEST TPC
TRACK THOUGH...I PLAN TO KEEP OUR ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE DURATION OF NEXT WEEKEND. THIS TRACK ALSO PUTS BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER NICE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGES THROUGH THEN WILL BE TO STATE A MORE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO THE WINDS. BUT THE SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT TO GENTLE.

AGAIN...KEEP HURRICANE FRANCES A TOP PRIORITY WHILE MAKING ANY
BOATING OR RECREATIONAL PLANS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. PERSONS SHOULD NOT SOLELY CONCENTRATE ON A POINT
FORECAST TRACK FOR SUCH A STRONG STORM DUE TO THE AFFECTS FELT A
GOOD DISTANCE FROM AN ACTUAL CENTER. THAT SAID...FRESHENING TO
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ADVERTISED FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS FRANCES APPROACHES THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COAST. THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL OF COURSE BE THE FIRST AREAS TO FEEL
ANY WORSENING CONDITIONS...AND WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. WITH
ITS PRESENT TRACK...STRONG WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 81 90 81 90 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON 81 93 81 92 / 20 30 30 30

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...MR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS............DFM




[dixiebreeze]

Love your posts --- but please don't use that very hard to read RED! Thank you.

[TampaFl]

Sorry about that Dixebreeze:wink: Will work on using a color that is easier on the eyes. Any suggestions

Robert

[Dean4Storms]

I've said all along that this storm will likely landfall on south Florida or through the Straits (somewhere between West Palm Bch. and the Keys) and I'm sticking with it as the ridging extends from the eastern half of the US clear out to the middle of the Atlantic and builds. Somewhere around the southern Florida peninsula or in the straits Frances will begin a turn more NW and into the eastern GOM as she rounds the ridge and gets out in front of a trough forecasted to be in the middle of the country come Labor Day weekend. This trough and the backing down of the ridge will turn Frances more northerly and toward the upper Gulf Coast somewhere east of New Orleans.

[wx247]

How about pink?

[paulvogel]

Just highlight the red with your mouse, like your gonna copy it and read it it will turn white