Barometer Bobs 2003 hurricane forecast

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Apr 05, 2003 8:17 pm

http://www.usweatherwatchers.com/seasonforecast.html

It is a complete forecast that is divided in sections all around the atlantic basin and has all the factors analized by him but the only question to his excellent report is the QBO winds that he says are from the west but really are eastward now and he says it has to do with ENSO but I disagree with that but he will clear that part soon but what is the opinions of all here of his forecast and numbers that he has 13/8/3/4?

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Apr 05, 2003 8:41 pm

He's wrong about the QBO. I disagree with a couple of his factor and regional predictions too. Though I do think his numbers are reasonable.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Apr 05, 2003 10:20 pm

Kevin_Wx · #4 Postby **Kevin_Wx** » Sat Apr 05, 2003 10:39 pm

He has the misconception that the easterly QBO ONLY occurs in El Nino years, but that is highly untrue! A very bad flaw in what I thought was a well-written forecast. The only thing an east QBO could do slow down the development of a La Nina. Even then, I doubt it will inhibit the La Nina too much.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Apr 06, 2003 1:30 pm

QBO winds will not be a major factor if they are easterly because being the other factors favorable it cancels the QBO one.

TWW,Supercane,Kevin or any other friend that might have the true answer about where the QBO winds will blow from this season to rest this issue once and for all because I lost many links due to my computer crash on January.

#6 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Apr 06, 2003 4:15 pm

Check out Hurricane Hollow or USWXwatchers message boards. I think BarometerBob answers the questions there.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Apr 06, 2003 4:49 pm

Yes David I saw that message board and there is a big controversy there about the QBO winds from what direction they will blow during the 2003 season but Bob replied to my post there in a good manner answering my questions about the QBO.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Apr 06, 2003 7:34 pm

Check out Hurricane Hollow or USWXwatchers message boards. I think BarometerBob answers the questions there.

The chart that I provided above contains the correct answer.

mf_dolphin · #9 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sun Apr 06, 2003 8:05 pm

Well obviously there is a difference in opinion. :-)

We'll have to wait and see how everything develops!

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Apr 06, 2003 8:26 pm

Its not a matter of opinion. Every QBO index graphic clearly shows that we're going into the eatserly phase of the QBO. Everyone makes mistakes.

Kevin_Wx · #11 Postby **Kevin_Wx** » Sun Apr 06, 2003 8:30 pm

TropicalWxWatcher wrote:Its not a matter of opinion. Every QBO index graphic clearly shows that we're going into the eatserly phase of the QBO. Everyone makes mistakes.

Correct. And correct.

mf_dolphin · #12 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sun Apr 06, 2003 9:34 pm

Sorry if I don't believe every graphic I see. :-)

The final word will come from the actual not the projected... The real important thing will be if it actually helps or hinders tropical development. That is yet to be seen :-)

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Apr 06, 2003 9:36 pm

Its not a projected graphic. hehehehe

mf_dolphin · #14 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sun Apr 06, 2003 9:38 pm

What is projected is the future continued trend. While I respect your views, a given condition now does not necessarily mean the trend or condition will continue.

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Apr 06, 2003 10:13 pm

What is projected is the future continued trend. While I respect your views, a given condition now does not necessarily mean the trend or condition will continue.

Actually the wind direction changes roughly every 26 months. The QBO isn't like ENSO that fluctuates back and fourth. The oscillation is one of te easiest factors to forecast. Thats one reason why Gray didn't have a long section on the oscillation in his April update. In addition, the QBO is already beginning to go negative. We're not making this stuff up just to discredit Bob. The rest of his seasonal discussion was excellent. I don't understand why he made such a big deal about this thread anyway. :?

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 07, 2003 7:09 am

Agree TWW about why Bob made my thread a big deal because the facts are the facts and those facts are that the QBO winds are easterly.The only thing that happened with his forecast about that is a mistake in his part and all of us make mistakes.

Anonymous · #17 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Apr 07, 2003 3:35 pm

Bob's forecast is overall well-written. His thinking of a westerly QBO is his only flaw. This isn't something I would have suspected him to make a big deal over.

Barometer Bobs 2003 hurricane forecast

Barometer Bobs 2003 hurricane forecast

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