Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
Sunday August 29, 2004 5am
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Frances is a well organized catgeory 4 hurricane. This is a HELL of a storm.
I expect a track farther south than the NHC. With that ridge building in as strong as a steel door, any weakeness from Gaston will have no effect. So, steady west movement towards Florida....
It is currently a 115 kt category 4. I think it will be a category 5 as it approches Florida. Eyewall replacement cycles, fluctuations, rapid strengthing, and wobbles will occur with this extraordinary hurricane. It may be becoming an annular hurricane. That is no real band, but just a big spinning circle like Andrew and Isabel. The intensity might be greater than forecast in 5 days.
12 HRS-- 18.3N-- 57.0W-- 125 kt
24 HRS-- 20.0N-- 61.8W-- 125 kt
36 HRS-- 20.2N-- 64.0W-- 130 kt
48 HRS-- 22.0N-- 66.3W-- 135 kt
72 HRS-- 22.3N-- 69.8W-- 140 kt
96 HRS-- 23.1N-- 73.9W-- 140 kt
120 HRS- 24.3N-- 76.1W-- 145 kt
