Comments on the Atlantic [0204 UTC 28.08.2004]

[DoctorHurricane2003]

S 28.08.2004 [SAT AUG 28 2004]
0204 UTC [09:04 PM CDT]

GENERAL DISCUSSION OF PREVIOUS COMMENTS

So far it looks like my previous discussion on Frances is panning out as I believed...with slight variations in the intensity forecast. For my Gaston forecast, it looks like I will be under by approximately 10-20 KTS and off the track by approximately 120 NM (Originally forecasted 67% GA strike, 33% S SC strike).


HURRICANE FRANCES (06L)

Although T-Numbers have slipped slightly from SAB (down to T5.5/6.0), Frances continues to look like a classic, organized category 4 hurricane. Strength forecast: Typically, I only suggest that hurricanes have the possibility of becoming a category 5 by giving a predictive range into the category 5 strengths, with a mean in the category 4 area. However, I now hold strong beliefs that Frances will become a category 5 based on information and opinions throughout the meteorological community. For more information, please see the WIND INTENSITY FORECASTS below. Position forecasts: It now appears that the Lesser and Greater Antilles are in the all-clear mode from Frances. However, this is not the case for the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Florida. By Tuesday, Hurricane Frances should be approaching/striking the TCI, and by Wednesday and Thursday, should be fully into the Bahamas. Friday is the day to watch for landfall of Frances in FL. There is still an outside chance for recurvature north and avoidance for FL.....but the most likely scenario is a strike in S FL. For more information, see the General U.S. Landfall percentages below. All persons located in the TCI, Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, SC, NC, and along the Gulf Coast should keep their eyes on the progress of Hurricane Frances.

WIND INTENSITY FORECASTS
INITIAL: 115 KT*
NEXT ADVISORY: 115-120 KT* (50/50 chance)
12 HR: 120 KT*
24 HR: 125 KT*
36 HR: 125 KT*
48 HR: 130 KT*
72 HR: 130 KT*
96 HR: 140 KT*
120 HR: 145 KT*

*NOTE: Hurricane Frances is currently and should continue to go through several concentric eyewall cycles that could vary the wind intensity anywhere between 110 KT and 165 KT.

GENERAL U.S. LANDFALL PROBABILITIES

SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS: 46%
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA: 30%
GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA: 5%
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA: 19%

LOCATION DEFINITIONS:
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA: Savannah River, GA/SC to Charleston, SC.
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA: Charleston, SC to Little River Inlet, SC/NC.
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA: Little River Inlet, SC/NC to Cape Hatteras, NC.


TROPICAL STORM GASTON (07L)

Gaston has continued to rapidly intensify throughout the day. Strength forecast: Gaston should continue to intensify to a category 1 Hurricane as he nears the SC coast. Please see below for the WIND INTENSITY forecasts. Position Forecast: Gaston should make landfall near Charleston, SC sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening. It is important that people along the SC coast continue to monitor their local news station and the Weather Channel for continual updates on the strength and progress of the system. Preparations should already be underway and should be complete by midday tomorrow for the arrival of Gaston. Make sure you are in a secure location inside your house, or if your house is in a low-lying area, that you evacuate to your nearest shelter.

WIND INTENSITY FORECAST:
INITIAL: 55 KT
NEXT ADVISORY: 60 KT
12 HR: 65 KT
24 HR: 75 KT (LANDFALL)

PERCENT CHANCES OF CATEGORICAL STRENGTH AT LANDFALL:
TROPICAL STORM: 20%
CATEGORY 1: 52%
CATEGORY 2: 27%
CATEGORY 3: <2%
CATEGORY 4: <2%
CATEGORY 5: <2%


INVEST 98L

98L has continued to look organized throughout the day with T-Numbers from SAB at 1.5. This system will likely become Tropical Depression 08L at the 5 AM advisory, if not at the 11 PM advisory and should continue moving to the WNW.


***END

[Matthew5]

Invest 98L has reformed a area of convection. It might become something.

[Guest]

I think your forecasts are pretty accurate. The 165kt possibility with Frances is kinda scary though.