Robert
FXUS62 KTBW 281755
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...TROPICAL STORMS GASTON TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. DETAILS ON
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. TROUGHINESS...FROM GASTON...NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
A WEST OR SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN...BUT STILL
MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP SCATTERED POPS. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH SOME LATE MORNING CONVECTION ONSHORE. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG WITH OVER NIGHT FLOW OFF THE
GULF TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SUPPRESSED
SOUTH AS TROPICAL STORM GASTON MOVES THROUGH COASTAL CAROLINAS
MONDAY WITH TRAILING COOL FRONT. LARGE HIGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AS COOL FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO MOIST CONNECTIVELY ACTIVE AIR AND WINDS
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED. BY THURSDAY... WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DOMINATED
BY SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE SLIGHT STABILIZATION TO THE ATMOSPHERE DECREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS BY SATURDAY GENERATING MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.MARINE...NO CONCERNS EVEN AS WEST OR SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
SOME...TO AROUND 10KTS. AS GASTON MOVES AWAY ABOUT MIDWEEK WINDS
SHIFT TO VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST OR EAST AS THE NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 90 77 90 / 20 40 20 40
FMY 75 91 75 91 / 20 30 20 40
GIF 74 91 74 91 / 20 40 20 40
SRQ 76 90 76 90 / 20 40 20 40
BKV 71 90 72 90 / 30 40 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RKR
LONG TERM....CP