Two More Tropical Systems Forming

[KatDaddy]

One system off the SE US and one near Bermuda from VIS satellites.

[Matthew5]

Theres a weak cirulation with that area of convection off the southeastern Coast! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


I will have to look at closer visible in surface obs to get a handle on it.

[PurdueWx80]

Theres a weak cirulation with that area of convection off the southeastern Coast! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


I will have to look at closer visible in surface obs to get a handle on it.

Looking at buoy and surface station data along the coast, it has become clear that there is a closed circulation. Most of the buoy pressures have been slowly rising though, so it will take a bit for any further development. For this to happen, the convection will have to maintain itself more than it has the past several days. One buoy towards the western side of the system has been gusting over 20 kts occasionally.

Also, the circulation south of Bermuda still looks well organized this morning. There is a tropical wave/low to the east of the storm that may be some of the remnants of Danielle. If this feeds into the low south of Bermuda that may sound off further development more quickly.

[Matthew5]

After looking at close in visible this is what I think.


The area off the Southeast coast over the last few hours the convection has developed near a broad weak area of low pressure. I'm going to say that this is at or near the surface. This area is improving in organizion(Many mid level and convection organizion) But it doe's show signs of a LLCC forming. The center of this system is centered at 32.2/79....


As for the area off the around 30 north/65 west it also has a broad area of low pressure. In is also looking like it wents to organize slowly.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... s&type=vis

So we will have to watch these two areas for possible development.

[x-y-no]

If the area south of Bermuda develops further, is there any possibility that this would affect Frances' track? Or will they remain too far apart?

[HurricaneGirl]

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?seg=LocalWeather&loc=ktpa&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadarLoop&prodnav=none&pid=none

[TLHR]

This looks like Alex all over again...

[alicia-w]

According to the latest Tropical Outlook:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270900
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
HURRICANE FRANCES...CENTERED ABOUT 865 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
NOT FALLING IN EITHER OF THESE AREAS...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Aquawind]

If the area south of Bermuda develops further, is there any possibility that this would affect Frances' track? Or will they remain too far apart?

Good Question..It's kinda early now because the expected affect of the Ridge hasn't even occured..so it's all up in the air yet..If the system hangs around and actually strengthens it could help erode the ridge..but thats is real far out at the speed Frances is going..

From the Tampa Discussion @ 2:30am..They are aware of it..

BROUGHT WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK LOW/TROUGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH RATHER THAN ETA SOLUTION OF STRONGER LOW
APPROACHING DAYTONA BEACH. AGAIN...40 POPS...NEAR CLIMO...LARGELY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT APPEARS
TO HAVE NOWHERE TO GO.

.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-THU)...EASTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PICK
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF SC/GA BORDERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...MOVING IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TRAILING FRONT FROM THIS LOW LIKELY TO
STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PENINSULA AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

LONG TERM....MCMICHAEL


But any Monster Ridge alone a tad far out yet as well..as mentioned before Frances is soo slow it will encounter a few challenges before making any landfall..Trends change as well..hopefully for the better as the recent trend is not good...