NHC says there will be interesting days ahead!

[caneman]

Don't like the sound of this statement. Gulp........

IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT EACH NEW RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A FORECAST TRACK FARTHER TO WEST...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THERE WILL BE INTERESTING DAYS AHEAD.

[Mattie]

Yep - that whole report is pretty interesting. Frances bears watching for sure!

[southerngale]

Interesting indeed!

And this...
In fact...there were some indications that a banding-type eye was trying to form in earlier images. Initial intensity has been
increased to 50 knots but if the formation of the eye materializes
...Winds could be higher than currently estimated.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

My local met said "Now would be a good time to run out and get those Hurricane Tracker leaflets they give out free @ grocery stores"....

[Dave C]

Were moving into Sept. which, like Floyd and Isadore, means watching each trough as they dig deeper in Sept(although this year they've dug deep in AugustLOL). Track sure seems similar to Floyd with fore. turn to nw with slowing speed then turn back to the west as next ridge builds north. Can only hope a deep trough digs before any threat to Bahamas and east coast. And off-course it hopefully stays north of Le. islands an PR.

[AussieMark]

its getting to be a fair size as well.

Its this size and the storm is just 24 hours old.



I wonder how big it could grow potentially.

[Nimbus]

The potential track of this storm runs right up the northern islands Leewards/PR/DR/Haiti/Cuba and then Florida and the GOM.

Frances is gaining a little latitude by stair stepping as she intensifies but most of the steering continues to be towards the west.

The Upper level low over the northern atlantic continues east and does not look as though it will have much influence south of about 30N. There is a second trough pushing northeastward through the great lakes that will not make it as far south as the gulf coast either.

Given these upper level conditions north of 30, a strong ridge trapping Frances is looking more and more likely.

Since the ridge would keep Frances on a westerly track once she gets past 65W the hope had been that Frances would aim northwest in the next few days and recurve. This scenario still has not verified so the NHC will have to abandon it soon.

Fine tuning a WNW track and intensity is going to be difficult. There are factors such as proximity to land that will make the intensity forecast difficult. The best scenario for the islands would be a track a little further north leaving them on the weak side of the storm. Frances could even track south of west at some point as the models have hinted so it will be interesting.

[Guest]

The potential track of this storm runs right up the northern islands Leewards/PR/DR/Haiti/Cuba and then Florida and the GOM.

Frances is gaining a little latitude by stair stepping as she intensifies but most of the steering continues to be towards the west.

The Upper level low over the northern atlantic continues east and does not look as though it will have much influence south of about 30N. There is a second trough pushing northeastward through the great lakes that will not make it as far south as the gulf coast either.

Given these upper level conditions north of 30, a strong ridge trapping Frances is looking more and more likely.

Since the ridge would keep Frances on a westerly track once she gets past 65W the hope had been that Frances would aim northwest in the next few days and recurve. This scenario still has not verified so the NHC will have to abandon it soon.

Fine tuning a WNW track and intensity is going to be difficult. There are factors such as proximity to land that will make the intensity forecast difficult. The best scenario for the islands would be a track a little further north leaving them on the weak side of the storm. Frances could even track south of west at some point as the models have hinted so it will be interesting.

Keep in mind, there are plenty of ensembles that say fish, some say into florida then into the gulf, Then there are ensembles that are headed right towards NC and a few more that say NYC or cape cod.

remember those amateur sites you are looking at are all the MEDIAN of all combined long-range ensembles, and the best way to figure out which scenerio pans out is to look at all runs from several days and find strengths and weaknesses between the runs and figure out which runs are the best. especially GFs and canadian

[Nimbus]

I am watching the water vapor loop and there can't be a median since the storm will either get picked up or not. I do not agree with the models that take the storm north of Puerto Rico.

[Guest]

"he potential track of this storm runs right up the northern islands Leewards/PR/DR/Haiti/Cuba and then Florida and the GOM."

Talking about florida/GOM there. that is actually the outlier solution to an eventual track, if you really look into the model suites. although that could change.

I was not talking about effects on PR or the islands. I do realize the N turn with a weakness is highly unlikely to happen now.

[Weatherboy1]

Just looking at the wide-area water vapor loops, it looks like another trough is sweeping eastward toward the US East Coast. It's not as deep or as far south as the one that caught Charlie and turned him NNE. But if Frances slows and turns NW for a couple days in response to the first central Atlantic low, then turns back W under the rebuilding ridge, won't he she just get caught by this second trough a few days later? Seems to me we're looking at either a run up the east coast or out to sea-type situation between NC and Bermuda instead of an Andrew/FL storm.

[Guest]

Joe B mentioned this morning the system north of Frances. He said it might be the leftovers of Daniele. Will this northern systen force Frances to take a more southernly route. ?

[rbaker]

all depends on timing of troughs and ridges, and where frances is at time of these factors coming into play. I will say this in the last 4 days its gone from a complete miss of the islands to an increasing threat, esp. if it gets past 50 long w and stays under the 15 lat line.

[jlauderdal]

My local met said "Now would be a good time to run out and get those Hurricane Tracker leaflets they give out free @ grocery stores"....

Duh....we are in primetime. The local met isn;t saying anything earht shattering wheter Fran was out there or not. Local Mets really need to get a clue.

[Brent]

My local met said "Now would be a good time to run out and get those Hurricane Tracker leaflets they give out free @ grocery stores"....

Duh....we are in primetime. The local met isn;t saying anything earht shattering wheter Fran was out there or not. Local Mets really need to get a clue.

Yes. We've already had three storms affect the U.S., two hurricanes, and it's late August.

[Scott_inVA]

Don't like the sound of this statement. Gulp........

IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT EACH NEW RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A FORECAST TRACK FARTHER TO WEST...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THERE WILL BE INTERESTING DAYS AHEAD.

Not hugging anything and not meant to bash TPC (something I don't do) but...

It is significant that each run of the globals previously WAS west of TPC's forecast track and that they probably still are behind the curve.

Scott

[Nimbus]

>"The potential track of this storm runs right up
>the northern islands Leewards/PR/DR/Haiti/Cuba
>and then Florida and the GOM."
>Talking about florida/GOM there.

That is too far out to forecast. Florida would only be under the gun if the storm took one of the more northerly routes, there is no developing third trough at this time to swing the storm north over Florida. The second trough seen currently in the wide water vapor imagery is already starting to move north.

[CaluWxBill]

Keep in mind, there are plenty of ensembles that say fish, some say into florida then into the gulf, Then there are ensembles that are headed right towards NC and a few more that say NYC or cape cod.

remember those amateur sites you are looking at are all the MEDIAN of all combined long-range ensembles, and the best way to figure out which scenerio pans out is to look at all runs from several days and find strengths and weaknesses between the runs and figure out which runs are the best. especially GFs and canadian

huh, I wasn't aware of that, I thought the amateur sites used the Operational runs of each model, which are not Median values of the ensembles, but a true run of best estimated atmospheric conditions, while the ensembles, shift those conditions ever so slightly to give forecasters a view of the variability that any model run could have.

[Josephine96]

Florida would be under the gun because it's the state that's furthest south.. If the storm continues W or WNW.. and shows no signs of a turn by the Bahamas... then Central or South Florida could be devasated yet again..

The good news is.. it's still too early to say