000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190839
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072004
0900Z THU AUG 19 2004
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 132.4W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 132.4W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 131.8W
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.3N 134.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.3N 137.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.4N 139.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 142.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 150.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.0N 154.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 132.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
FORECASTER STEWART
Darn it looks like the Eastern Pacific will not let the Atlantic over take it!
Tropical depression 7E
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jlauderdal
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Re: Tropical depression 7E
Matthew5 wrote:000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190839
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072004
0900Z THU AUG 19 2004
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 132.4W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 132.4W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 131.8W
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.3N 134.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.3N 137.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.4N 139.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 142.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 150.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.0N 154.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 132.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
FORECASTER STEWART
Darn it looks like the Eastern Pacific will not let the Atlantic over take it!
we are 4 for 5 on hurricanes if im counting correctly and a landfalling cat 4 that did at least 15 billion in damage and its not even sept. 1 what more do you want as far as activity goes?
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-
Matthew5
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Matthew5
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 19 2004
INFRARED AND SSMI/TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1395 NMI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM TAFB
AND SAB AT 19/06Z...AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES SINCE THEN. A
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS ABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER
...WHICH EQUATES TO A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5...OR 35 KT. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A STEADY PACE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST
PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A
SLIGHT STAIR-STEP IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS INDICATED IN 48 TO 72
HOURS DUE TO A LARGE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF HAWAII THAT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND CAUSE IT TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD BACK SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. OF COURSE...JUST HOW FAR NORTH
THE RIDGE MOVES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR
THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...
SINCE THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE RATHER TIGHT IN MICROWAVE
DATA....AND GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN 10 KT AND OVER 27-28 SSTS...FASTER
STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AND THE CYCLONE
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 11.7N 132.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 12.3N 134.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 13.3N 137.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 14.4N 139.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 15.2N 142.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 150.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 17.0N 154.0W 55 KT
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 19 2004
INFRARED AND SSMI/TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1395 NMI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM TAFB
AND SAB AT 19/06Z...AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES SINCE THEN. A
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS ABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER
...WHICH EQUATES TO A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5...OR 35 KT. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A STEADY PACE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST
PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A
SLIGHT STAIR-STEP IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS INDICATED IN 48 TO 72
HOURS DUE TO A LARGE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF HAWAII THAT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND CAUSE IT TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD BACK SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. OF COURSE...JUST HOW FAR NORTH
THE RIDGE MOVES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR
THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...
SINCE THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE RATHER TIGHT IN MICROWAVE
DATA....AND GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN 10 KT AND OVER 27-28 SSTS...FASTER
STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AND THE CYCLONE
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 11.7N 132.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 12.3N 134.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 13.3N 137.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 14.4N 139.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 15.2N 142.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 150.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 17.0N 154.0W 55 KT
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