Question for Professional Mets

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EDR1222
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Question for Professional Mets

#1 Postby EDR1222 » Tue Aug 17, 2004 6:16 pm

I was reading a forecast discussion out of the NWS Melbourne site. In the discussion it talks about how the GFS model shows a tropical feature in the southern bahamas by next Tuesday. How does a model forecast this when there are no current systems around? :roll:

Thanks,

Ed
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#2 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 17, 2004 6:26 pm

Sometimes it picks up on an easterly wave a develops it.

Sometimes it just develops stuff out of the blue. There used to be a running joke a few years ago about the GFS 10 day cat 5 hurricane, which it always seem to develop out of nowhere (before the changed the model program).
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#3 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 17, 2004 6:57 pm

The GFS/MRF is picking up and developing the TW that has an associated circulation near 35w and brings it wnw. Very plausible possibility.
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#4 Postby Aimless » Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:04 pm

There is no model that can accurately project out that far , but they are helpful to serve as a reminders to check back often. There is potential.
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