Storm Surge vs. Wind Damage

[clearwater]

I live barely a mile off the coast (in Clearwater, FL). I am NOT in an evacuation zone.

However evacuation zones are, reportedly, based on storm surge/flooding issues only.

I have to wonder if a Cat-4 or 5 came through here if NOT evacuating would be wise even though I am outside the evacuation zone.

Thoughts on when peoples outside evac zones should evacuate?

[Nimbus]

You are aware that prior to 1921 Caladesi island was connected to Honeymoon island?

[wxman57]

Perhaps you should watch those videos of houses being ripped apart and blown away as Charley's center passed to determine if you would have wanted to be in one of them at the time.

And also remember that the people in those homes went to bed with Charley a Cat 1 hurricane Thursday night . They awoke to a bombing Cat 4 hurricane hours away. So it's not just Cat 3-4 hurricanes that you need to be concerned about, it's ALL hurricanes.

[PTPatrick]

All I have to say is ask the folks in Wauchula and Arcadia(20-40 miles inland) what it was like. My friend went through it in Wauchula and he said he was SCARED, and by scared I mean he and his family were in the hallway and said prayers and stuff.

Also, let me point out that evac zones are not always accurate. They can be higher than they expect. This happened to us with Georges. The surge was 15 feet, but it seemed to find places that they didnt really think would flood. Also, many people thought, hey we got 12 feet with Camille, and thought that Georges couldnt do that. What they didnt realize was that camille hit 60 miles east of here. Georges hit dead on. So the point is, you never know what will happen.

[alicia-w]

I think those established zones are for planning purposes only. So if an identified area is expected to be targeted by a storm, they'll recommend evacuation regardless of what zone it's in. I would think some of this is for state emergency planning purposes and insurance stuff. Maybe it's meant to give you an idea of what to expect under certain circumstances, certainly not a rigid rule to follow.

[clearwater]

Pinellas County had a mandatory evacuation of 350,000 people and that was an evacuation of only 3 of 5 evacuation zones. Tampa Bay had another 300,000 people ordered to evacuate -- again not a full evacuation of listed zones.

You may not be aware, but there is not an infinite number of evacuation routes out of Pinellas.

People OUTSIDE of the evacuation zones were strongly encouraged to STAY HOME -- if EVERYONE in Pinellas and Hillsborough County had attempted to evacuate the counties and Charley had hit here, how many deaths do you think there would have been due to 1-2 million people all trying to use the same three exit routes at the same time?

Let me repeat the question and see if someone can come up with a more helpful answer than "you're an idiot if you stay in any home in any threat of any storm."

THE QUESTION: "Thoughts on when peoples outside evac zones should evacuate?"

[Guest]

Perhaps you should watch those videos of houses being ripped apart and blown away as Charley's center passed to determine if you would have wanted to be in one of them at the time.

And also remember that the people in those homes went to bed with Charley a Cat 1 hurricane Thursday night . They awoke to a bombing Cat 4 hurricane hours away. So it's not just Cat 3-4 hurricanes that you need to be concerned about, it's ALL hurricanes.

wxman, the people slept at CAT1 and woke up with a CAT 4. I wish I can get that kinda sleep.

[zoeyann]

clearwater- I think I understand what you are asking, but if there is a good solution I can not think of it. You don't necessarily feel safe in your area, but you do not want to leave and keep those in more vunerable areas stuck in traffic by evacuating unnessarily. The problem in most areas on the gulf coast is too many residents with too few evacuation routes. My advice would be to look at each situation carefully and decide what is best for you and your family. If I feel my kids myself are in jepordy I do not wait for permission, but leave early. Storms are strange and do not pay attention to evacuation zone lines.

[Nimbus]

How could you not be in an evacuation zone for a cat 4 storm on a barrier island?

[clearwater]

zoeyann, thank you for a thoughtful response.

How could you not be in an evacuation zone for a cat 4 storm on a barrier island?

um, Clearwater is not an island.

Not yet, anyway.

And BTW, I believe Charley was still a Cat 2 at the time all evacuation routes were closed.

[Nimbus]

There are areas of Clearwater on high ground a mile inland from the coast. If you live in a masonry construction home with a good roof and you don't have large trees near your house to your south or east it might be worth the risk depending on the storm track. If the eyewall actually hit, you might have to spend several hours huddled under a matress in your bathroom but odds are you would survive. They organize evacuations in an orderly fashion, with the mobile home parks and beaches evacuated first. If you have a modular construction home then I would consider evacuating at level 2 since this kind of construction is known to blow apart quite easily. So really the answer is it depends.

[Derek Ortt]

Depends upon the category. For a 4 or a 5, it is the wind, not the water, that is the most destructive aspect of the storm. Look at the last 4 U.S. landfalls from 4's or 5's. St Croix was leveled by the winds of Hugo, the winds of Hugo also spread destruction all the way to Charlotte, Andrew's winds made the surge insignificant, and Iniki's winds ripped apart 95% of Kauai. For a 2 or a 3, it seems to be the surge and the rainfall that causes the destruction (Floyd, Fran, Georges, etc).

In short, leave for all 4's and 5's (and yes, EOM needs to change their protocol to guard against wind ASAP), but outside of the zones should be OK for anything less

[caneman]

Depends upon the category. For a 4 or a 5, it is the wind, not the water, that is the most destructive aspect of the storm. Look at the last 4 U.S. landfalls from 4's or 5's. St Croix was leveled by the winds of Hugo, the winds of Hugo also spread destruction all the way to Charlotte, Andrew's winds made the surge insignificant, and Iniki's winds ripped apart 95% of Kauai. For a 2 or a 3, it seems to be the surge and the rainfall that causes the destruction (Floyd, Fran, Georges, etc).

In short, leave for all 4's and 5's (and yes, EOM needs to change their protocol to guard against wind ASAP), but outside of the zones should be OK for anything less

I agree with this. There were people who stayed because they were in Zone D or E. Thinking they would be safe because they weren't gonna get strom surge. I had to explain to them that a Cat. 4 or Cat. 5 would level their house. Unfortunately most people don't realize storms can blow up like this one did. I did and really felt like this one had the potential. Hence I evacuated.

[Guest]

I do not believe that saying andrew and Hugos threats were greater with wind are particularly accurate.

It turned out, these storms were more noteworthy for the wind because the coastal communities that were affected were not "high profile" cities. I understand you and most everyone probably knows this already.

If a hurricane Hugo were to make a direct landfall just to the left of a port city, the main concerns would be the terrible surge to the extent of the wind threat, if not greater. A great cat4-cat5 could easily put a port city lying under 15ft ASL under water. That in itself is far more chaotic and catastrophic than the wind damage.

[Derek Ortt]

Coconut Grove, which is where the gov't of Miami resides, had a 10 foot surge from Andrew. Andrew's surge affected a major city. However, the wind from Andrew did so much more damage that very few people even know that Andrew did produce one of the highest storm surges in American history.

Also, many of the areas that received surge, as demonstrated by Sanibel in Charley, did suffer more wind damage. The force of a cat 4 wind is 4 times greater than that of a cat 1; thus, the reason why we see concrete structures ripped apart

[SouthernWx]

For a 4 or a 5, it is the wind, not the water, that is the most destructive aspect of the storm. Look at the last 4 U.S. landfalls from 4's or 5's. St Croix was leveled by the winds of Hugo, the winds of Hugo also spread destruction all the way to Charlotte, Andrew's winds made the surge insignificant, and Iniki's winds ripped apart 95% of Kauai. For a 2 or a 3, it seems to be the surge and the rainfall that causes the destruction (Floyd, Fran, Georges, etc).

True that in Andrew the most destructive and deadly aspect was caused by extreme winds....but ONLY because the highest storm surge occurred in a small area and affected the coast south of Miami Beach. The 1926 Great Miami hurricane put Miami Beach completely underwater and covered much of downtown Miami...and if Andrew had been 20 miles farther north at landfall, it would have been the same result (and Dr Sheets said the same thing).

The 1935 Labor Day hurricane and hurricane Camille both drowned the majority of those who died....even though their extreme winds were incredible and caused complete devastation. We've been extremely lucky the past three decades that powerful hurricanes have avoided direct hits on major population centers in which the affected city was in the max wind/ peak storm surge area.

I can assure you....if a hurricane the intensity of Hugo or Camille slams into the coastline just NW of Tampa or SW of Galveston or New Orleans, and either city is inside the eyewall, you will see storm surge devastation on a scale it will stun you.

[clearwater]

Thank you all for some insightful discussion.

In short, leave for all 4's and 5's (and yes, EOM needs to change their protocol to guard against wind ASAP), but outside of the zones should be OK for anything less

I begin to suspect that the smartest move is to not live in a heavily congested coastal community with severely limited evacuation routes.

Following the prevailing advice in this thread, I would have made the decision to stay. Then the evacuation routes closed. Then Charley was upgraded to Cat-4 and I would've known that I should leave, but I wouldn't have been able to -- nor would evacuation zones D and E.

I also begin to realize what a massively difficult job Emergency Management has in this area... and no matter what they do, if a Cat-4/5 hits here, we're in deep doodoo.

[rbaker]

i lived in clw from 1956 to 1986, and lived 1/4 mile from clw bay. Saw Donna (north wind), Gladys in 68 sw wind, where it hit about Homosassa area north of clw. And of course elena in 85, which caused alot of beach damage on barrier islands. We have to remember angle of how the storm hits the coast, what intensity(big key) and where you live. All three storms had diff effects on my house. The worse being Gladys because i was to the right of landfall, and in a little closer to the coast with 90mph winds, which is Cat 1. We have to remember that Charley was unique that it went from a strong cat 2 to a 4 in a matter of hours, plus a fast mover, with hardly any reaction time. I lived in a masonary house, so in all those instances I had little damage. Of course none of these storms I mentioned were of the magnitude of Charley, if they had I probably would not have had a roof on my house, and a hit around Dunedin, could have split Caladesi island again like it did back in 21. So my advise to you is if you are a mile in and its cat 1 you will be ok, however cat 2 or better, you had better be ready to move out at a moments notice. It is far better to play it safe than sorry.