00Z GFS...No Real Changes

[MWatkins]

Just looking at the 0Z GFS in the critical Day 4 period (96 hours) there are no big changes to report in the mean layers...however...there are a couple of subtle trends to watch for in the next couple of days.

The last full run of the GFS (12Z) had a 500MB trough and mid-lat low approaching the great lakes...and a small low located over Ohio.



The most recent run at the same verify time is faster with the small low...over West Virgina...and a little sharper and faster with the Canadian mid-lat system.



Still no vortex in the new guidance...but my gut feeling is that earl will probably end up south of my forecast track for tonight unless we start to see subsequent runs of the model deepen the trough to the north. But...have to see which way these features trend. Next 2 days are critical...I hope the track stays south.

MW

[southerngale]

What would the south track mean? Maybe miss the US completely?

Mike, is it looking like there will be a trough to pick up Earl in the GOM, assuming he makes it there? I know it's early, but what does it look like now?

...thanks!

[KatDaddy]

MWatkins you are and have always been highlight to Storm2k. You are a solid and real person. With that being said I hope Earl does not threaten the HOU-GAL areas along the Upper TX Coast. I also hope Earl goes S....way S into Mexico.

[washington]

most of the long range models don't pick up on earl which is not good because you don't know what is going to happen with tihs storm.

[MWatkins]

Ok...

Southergale: The chances of this system affecting the US...somewhere are high unless something unforseen occurs. The southern most track I've seen is into Cozumel...through 144 hours. The chances of this system continuting west and not making it north of 25N are remote. The best case is if we an somehow get it to dissipate.

Katdaddy: Wow...thank you. Not sure what to say to that other than I do my best...I'm with you...would like to see this thing go away in the morning. But that's probably not going to happen. Latest satellite imagery suggets that there may be a reformation to the north near the deeper convection. That...of course...is not good. Good to see you again this season...

Washington: Yep...the only model that seems to have a handle on Earl in terms of intensity is the NOGAPS model...as long as you believe that Earl will not dissipate soon. The GFS isn't resolving it at all and the UKMET end Earl WNW to NW until it dissipates the surface cyclone...then west thereafter. Would like to see them all pick it up.

We have another 36 hours or so to get things together...then things could become dicey.

MW

[washington]

I was looking around at all the model sites they think a trough is going to make it down south again.
Also HPC is saying the same thing in the next 3-5 days.

[OtherHD]

Is there any chance that Earl is just a wave right now? You know, with the fast movement? Not that I've seen anything indicating a wave, but it's more a case of wishful thinking.

[Steve H.]

MW, I assume you're on the Gold coast somewhere (memory again). But my early intuition was that this may be destined for Lauderdale or the Palm beaches. That was the gut talking though. Let's see if the trough talks or the ridge. The SE Florida coast hasn't seen a real hurricane since what, '38.........Well there was Donna, but didn't that mess up Stuart more? Anyhow that area is the other scary region where the population has increased incredibly. Fortunately Andrew stayed south of there (not fortunate for Homestead) but I'm sure you know what I mean. No rough weather to speak of near Melbourne last nite.....just heavy showers and gusty. But much less than I thought. Volusia caught the worst of it on the east coast. Got a bad feeling about the Gold coast though. If not Earl, then down the road a couple of weeks. With the "cold" summer pattern, Florida and the eat/central GOM may be busy running around. Cheers!!

[SouthernWx]

The last major hurricane to strike the Gold Coast (Miami to West Palm Beach) was King in October 1950....a small but intense 125 mph cat-3 that produced 150 mph gusts in downtown Miami and 138 mph in Ft Lauderdale.

Before King, there was a major hurricane that caused tremendous damage in Broward and Palm Beach counties in August 1949...the anemometer at PBI blew away at 140 mph, and 160 mph gusts were measured at a fire station in Stuart (per the book "Florida's Hurricane History").

Both Andrew and Betsy struck just south of the Gold Coast (far enough to be "indirect hits"...although Andrew was a direct hit as close to Miami as Coral Gables). Also, some folks seem to think hurricane Cleo in 1964 was a major....but it was a strong cat-2 with sustained winds of 105-110 mph at landfall (967 mb).

MW...I agree, if Earl becomes a major hurricane, based on the forecast synoptic pattern...the odds are high it will strike some portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast. If the trough catches it, we're talking Morgan City to Apalachicola...if it doesn't, lookout coastal Texas

[MWatkins]

Whelp...the UKMET is on board suggesting a FL panhandle landfall...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

The CMC model...once again is out to lunch with a system never making it past 25N.

Not liking the UKMET trend...well right of the previous run.

MW