11am discussion

[seahawkjd]

Hurricane Charley Discussion Number 17


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 13, 2004


Aircraft...satellite and radar indicate that Charley remains on
track with an initial motion of 360/16. The global model guidance
is in fairly good agreement about the motion accelerating
north-northeastward during the next two days after which Charley is
expected to become extratropical. The forecast track is similar to
the previous advisory except adjusted slightly to the right. The
forecast track and intensity is for winds near hurricane force
along and near the Georgia coast as Charley GOES by and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued to alert to this possibility. A tropical
storm watch is also extended northward along the North Carolina
coast.

An eyewall dropsonde at about 12z indicated that the maximum surface
winds are still near 95 kts. A closed 10-mile diameter eyewall
persists and the pressure has dropped 5 mb to 965 mb during the
past two hours suggesting that there could be some additional
strengthening during the next several hours before landfall on the
Florida West Coast. Thereafter the GFS and other models show the
strong winds expanding on the east side of the storm as it moves
near the U.S. East Coast.
Forecaster Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/1500z 25.2n 82.8w 95 kt
12hr VT 14/0000z 27.7n 82.6w 100 kt
24hr VT 14/1200z 31.4n 81.5w 60 kt...inland
36hr VT 15/0000z 35.8n 79.2w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 15/1200z 40.2n 76.8w 30 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 16/1200z 46.5n 71.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 17/1200z...absorbed by extratroopcal low

[seahawkjd]

An eyewall dropsonde at about 12z indicated that the maximum surface
winds are still near 95 kts

[Hurricane Cheese]

Well, there ya have it

[Hurricane Cheese]

Well, there ya have it

[countbob]

all forecasters -

I know very little about storm forecasting. What will Charley do? Will he get stronger before landfall or weaken? What is the predicted path and how strong will he be when he gets to NC and VA?

- cb