Naples - Ft. Myers Not off the Hook!

[Aquawind]

Just beacuse the track has shifted left doesn't mean you can relax..

Most people don't remember how Donna affected our exact location..Well Gabrielle is the closest analogy to impact in recent years..

Gabby was closest @ 26.10N 83.10 W with 992mb and 60mph..I live about 6 miles inland and my entire street and canal were one big lake from Estero Bay being pushed up the River...Were actiually closer to the 26.3N 81.8..

Charley Forecast..Adjusted left even...


36HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 83.0W 95 KT


Soo. Lets see after a shift of relief..Were still screwed as you can see it will ride up from the south and rake the coast more than Gabby did..

Charley is Closer and Over 100mph winds !!!!

If you notice my usual smiley faces have faded you now know why..

[Steve H.]

Yes, I agree that I wouldn't give SW Florida the all clear. 6z GFS is slightly east of the 0z run.

[cycloneye]

And Aquawind even if the eye doesn't get in where you are the most stronger side of the hurricane is the right side so you will get plenty of rain and wind from it.

[BayouVenteux]

If you notice my usual smiley faces have faded you now know why..

On the other hand, for every sad face this morning, there's a happy one. This increasingly raises the hope that my parents' Ft. Myers Beach home, their material belongings and a lifetime of family memories will stay safe.

[Floridacaner]

I agree with you both. Everyone in Florida has to watch. We have a Hurricane churning below our state. For anyone to say that we are in the clear, whether they are a met or not, needs to reevaluate their sanity.

[Guest]

AW

I dont tbink anyone has said ALL CLEAR.... for sw fl.... I have said for example that IMO SW fl is seeing a REDUCED threat of a DIRECT HIT.

Words mean certain things. REDUCED threat of a DIRECT HIT.
does not mean all clear

[jlauderdal]

Just beacuse the track has shifted left doesn't mean you can relax..

Most people don't remember how Donna affected our exact location..Well Gabrielle is the closest analogy to impact in recent years..

Gabby was closest @ 26.10N 83.10 W with 992mb and 60mph..I live about 6 miles inland and my entire street and canal were one big lake from Estero Bay being pushed up the River...Were actiually closer to the 26.3N 81.8..

Charley Forecast..Adjusted left even...


36HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 83.0W 95 KT


Soo. Lets see after a shift of relief..Were still screwed as you can see it will ride up from the south and rake the coast more than Gabby did..

Charley is Closer and Over 100mph winds !!!!

If you notice my usual smiley faces have faded you now know why..

Exactly correct. The track shifted a little last night because of some ridging found on the g-4 mission. That track can easily shift back. 2 days ago they had it in the gulf. If we get 4-6 hours of the strom heading 10 degrees to the right of the forecast track than its a whole different story.

[washington]

DT tell me if I am wrong I seen the new path and they take it north of tampa almost near ceder key.

[Guest]

The fact is that 24 hrs ago all the model data took charley directly into SW fl.

Now NONE -- not a One -- does. Folks that sort of Huge model shift and agreement MEANS something.

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND

[Brent]

DT tell me if I am wrong I seen the new path and they take it north of tampa almost near ceder key.

NHC at 5am takes it RIGHT UP Tampa Bay.

[Aquawind]

The fact is that 24 hrs ago all the model data took charley directly into SW fl.

Now NONE -- not a One -- does. Folks that sort of Huge model shift and agreement MEANS something.

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND

Glad for no Landfall..but it is little comfort as the post shows..I was not referring to any verbage you used in prior posts DT..Reduced threat is true alrighty..I was reminding the local folks what reduced threat means..Notta Lotta..Just some simple facts for my neighbors..I am hoping the TREND continues..

[Aquawind]

Mandatory evacuations now in effect from Bonita Beach to Boca Grande Latest forecast shows Hurricane Charley headed toward Tampa Bay

By DAVE BREITENSTEIN
Published by news-press.com on August 12, 2004


RELATED INFORMATION
• Video: 8 a.m. forecast from NBC2

Mandatory evacuations are in effect from Bonita Beach to Boca Grande as Hurricane Charley approaches. In addition, Sanibel Island issued a mandatory evacuation that took effect at 7 a.m. today, compelling all residents to leave as soon as possible.

Sanibel also enacted a curfew that begins at 7 p.m. for those who decline to leave the island.

As of 8 a.m., weather forecasters were still predicting that Charley's center would make landfall in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area after storm tracks were modified overnight. It currently is circling at 85 m.p.h. and passing by the Cayman Islands, moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h.

"We still think it will have landfall in the mouth of Tampa Bay," said Barry Goldsmith, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin. "But you are still under a serious threat there because if it veers a little south, Fort Myers will be affected."

Hurricane force winds extend 25 miles from the eye, and Charley likely will spin past Southwest Florida farther out in the Gulf of Mexico. However, Goldsmith said tropical storm force winds reach 115 miles from the center, which could pose dangers for Collier, Lee and Charlotte counties. Coastal areas could be flooded because of storm surge, which will vary depending on the storm's strength and tides when it passes.

Barrier island schools in Lee County have been closed today, and Lee Superintendent James Browder will announce by noon today whether all public schools will be closed Friday. A primary concern is whether roads in low-lying areas will be flooded.

As of 7 a.m., Lee County's Emergency Operations Center was bumped to Level 1 activation, which means all employees are on duty. The center will make further announcements as necessary.

Back to Hurricane

[Aquawind]

Looking at the 11:10am forecast plots..The system is figured to be further north but it is actually slightly closer than the 11am..My Location..26.3N 81.8..

5am..plots

36HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 83.0W 95 KT

Current..plots

24HR VT 13/1200Z 24.6N 83.1W 95 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 28.0N 82.8W 95 KT

New Distance..about the same..

@26.3N ~ 82.9-83.0..

Not much comfort..

[Brent]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1030 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FOR COASTAL LEE COUNTY FLORIDA...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF LEE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

...EVACUATIONS UNDERWAY FOR HURRICANE CHARLEY...

EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATLY...THE LEE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS
ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ITS COASTAL AND BARRIER
ISLANDS...INCLUDING BONITA BEACH...ESTERO ISLAND...FORT MYERS
BEACH...SAN CARLOS ISLAND..SANIBEL ISLAND...CAPTIVA...PINE
ISLAND...MATLACHA...GASPARILLA ISLAND...AND BOCA GRANDE. TOLLS HAVE
BEEN SUSPENDED ON ALL COUNTY BRIDGES. HURRICANE SHELTERS WILL OPEN
BEGINNING AT 10 AM. MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA FOR CONTINUING DEVELOPMENTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR
UPDATES ON THIS EMERGENCY.

[Aquawind]

Just a reminder to locals..it's looking like a very close call for us..In fact NHC has it forecast even closer to the area..Take All Precautions!! LEAVE if you can be persuaded..imho..It's not moving west of 82.8W anymore in the forecast and could move east prematurely..Be Safe..

12HR VT 13/1200Z 24.0N 82.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 26.8N 82.8W 105 KT

[flyingphish]

We are not off the hook ..we are on it. IMHO. Farewell in the seas ahead!