Here it is for all to see..
--TFCTSU--
NEMAS-TFC
Tropical Storm Update
National Environmental and Meteorological Association
09:57 PM EDT Wednesday, August 11, 2004
Hurricane Charley
**Current position and forecast track**
Latest position and intensity:
17.2 North, 78.2 West - Highest sustained winds: 65 knots / 75 mph.
12 hour forecast:
19.0 North, 80.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 65 knots / 75 mph.
24 hour forecast:
22.0 North, 82.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 80 knots / 90 mph.
36 hour forecast:
25.0 North, 82.5 West - Highest sustained winds: 90 knots / 105 mph.
48 hour forecast:
28.0 North, 81.5 West - Highest sustained winds: 70 knots/80 mph...Inland over Florida.
72 hour forecast:
37.5 North, 77.0 West - Highest sustained winds: 45 knots/ 50 mph...inland .
Storm Discussion:
The cloud pattern has become elongated during the past few hours from NW to SE...a
typical indicator of a coming change in motion in tropical cyclones.
Nevertheless...Charley continues moving toward the WNW this evening, after taking a
more westerly direction during the day than originally anticipated. The center has
now passed the western tip of Jamaica, and is on course for WRN Cuba in about 24 to
30 hours.
There has been no significant change in the forecast reasoning during the day.
Charley is expected to begin a more NW motion later tonight and into tomorrow, then
turn Northward and Northeastward later in the period as the cyclone feels the
weakness in the ridge as heights fall over the ERN U.S.
The intensity forecast...as always...remains challenging. Recon has found lower
central pressures this evening and an on again off again eye feature has been making
an appearance on satellite during the past few hours. Wind shear remains low along
the forecast track, and the water is plenty warm...thus continued strengthening is
forecast until the storm makes landfall along the FL west coast. It should be noted
that between 48 and 72 hours Charley is expected to emerge into the Atlantic before
striking the U.S. coast again...currently forecast to do so in South Carolina. This
part of the forecast is highly uncertain, as any change in direction one way or the
other could enhance or detract from strengthening...depening on how long the storm
is over water before reaching land again. In any case...all interests from the
Florida Peninsula to the Carolina's should continue to monitor future advisories on
Charley.
OVERMAN