Rare polar trough for this time will dip into the caribbean

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 31, 2003 4:24 pm

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.txt

It is not common to see a cold front go deep into the caribbean as this one will do in the next 36-48 hours.

Yes cold fronts haved come down in past years by late march but now going into april those are more rare.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/sju/AFD/SJUAFDSJU.1.txt

Here in Puerto Rico expect plenty of rain by late wendsday lasting into friday so let's see how much rain comes here.

http://maps.weather.com/images/maps/tro ... 20x486.jpg

This front will cool the waters in the caribbean sea and in the Bahamas but not by much so they will rebound rapidly as the hurricane season comes closer.

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 31, 2003 7:56 pm

What does this mean cyc???? :roll:

Johnathan

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Mar 31, 2003 8:03 pm

Rainband wrote:What does this mean cyc????

It doesn't mean anything, at least regarding the upcoming hurricane season.

mf_dolphin · #4 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Mar 31, 2003 8:04 pm

It sure was cool here today! You can have my share! This is probably out last shot of cool weather till December and that's fine by me!

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 31, 2003 8:10 pm

Supercane wrote:It doesn't mean anything, at least regarding the upcoming hurricane season.

Thanks Rob :wink:

Johnathan

Kevin_Wx · #6 Postby **Kevin_Wx** » Mon Mar 31, 2003 9:35 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:It sure was cool here today! You can have my share! This is probably out last shot of cool weather till December and that's fine by me!

Fear not...lower and mid 80's will be back by the end of the week!

As for SSTA's, well, I wouldn't be worrying about what is off of Florida right now. The very warm SSTA's off of the EC (ATC) are signs that the 2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be highly resurgent and possibly comparable to the late 90's hurricane seasons.

Not trying to hype it up or bring bad news, but what I stated above is looking increasingly likely.

Steve H. · #7 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Mar 31, 2003 9:59 pm

They do occur in March though. In fact there could be one more by the weekend. However, the cold will be short-lived. These last good blasts of winter usually signal the exit of the northern jet to the north, then Arctic circle. Bringing a reversal of the pattern, things should warm quite rapidly after tax day, setting us up for warm SSTs by mid-june. Notice very warm anomalies in the eastern GOM, Bahamas and caribbean. This may bode well for an active hurricane sseason, if other factors come into play (i.e., Azores high further north by July, weak/neutral El Nino, light upper level winds, etc.). Let's put it this way, this polar trough may be signalling a pattern change that may be very timely for favorable conditions to fall into place by June and throughout a good portion of the summer. The winter pattern in the east held quite a long time. Maybe a favorable summer pattern will lock in. 8)

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Apr 01, 2003 12:30 am

Looks like a possible drought for parts of the south this summer...need to watch whats going to happen over the next two months to be sure.

Kevin_Wx · #9 Postby **Kevin_Wx** » Tue Apr 01, 2003 6:35 am

TropicalWxWatcher wrote:Looks like a possible drought for parts of the south this summer...need to watch whats going to happen over the next two months to be sure.

Yeah...and you know we (you and I) have been talking about as far as analogs...for these types of patterns...hmmm.

YIKES!

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Apr 01, 2003 6:36 am

Rainband for hurricane season doesn't mean nothing but the only thing is the rare front at april dipping way down into the deep tropics but other than that no important factor going into the season.

chadtm80 · #11 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Apr 01, 2003 2:53 pm

This is probably out last shot of cool weather till December and that's fine by me!

Not me

Guest · #12 Postby **Guest** » Wed Apr 02, 2003 2:18 am

I would not count on this beeing the last front to make its way into the gulf! Especialy if the models have thier way. Looks as if thier may be a few more in the next week or two that could make thier way into the gulf.
I for one do think we will have a favorable pattern this summer and it will get started in early June and i cant wait!

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Apr 02, 2003 6:20 am

Yes because sometimes from the tail end of fronts developments can occur.

ColdFront77 · #14 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Apr 02, 2003 5:43 pm

It is always fun to watch the potential for surface lows to develop along the end of a frontal system in the Gulf of Mexico (and at times the western Atlantic) during Hurricane Season.

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Apr 02, 2003 5:50 pm

I agree, Bring on Cane season!!!! I still have alot to learn but with all of you experts around..I should get a complete and thorough education this year!! :wink:

Johnathan

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Apr 02, 2003 5:52 pm

The next front will reach the Gulf on Tuesday.

Rainband · #17 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Apr 02, 2003 5:56 pm

Drought this summer for the south..How far south not Florida again, we are still recovering from the last drought

Johnathan

Rare polar trough for this time will dip into the caribbean

Rare polar trough for this time will dip into the caribbean

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