Question about the GOM...

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Johnny
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Question about the GOM...

#1 Postby Johnny » Tue Aug 03, 2004 4:13 pm

I just noticed that their is a broad area of convection in the central GOM. What is causing this flare up? Thanks.


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#2 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Aug 03, 2004 4:36 pm

That convection has been pretty persistent in mid-GOM the past several days. Wouldn't be surprised to see something generate there eventually. Of course, this time of year, one could say that about most anywhere in the tropics, barring extreme adverse conditions.
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#3 Postby BayouVenteux » Tue Aug 03, 2004 4:46 pm

According to this afternoon's TPC tropical discussion...

A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE NE GLFMEX.
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE DIGGING TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONE IS PRODUCING A DEVELOPING AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM HURCN ALEX SWD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GLFMEX NEAR 25N95W. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE NW GLFMEX TROUGH IS LIMITING TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE S UNITED STATES AND N GULF COAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NW GLFMEX WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS THROUGH THU. THIS WILL ALLOW A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO REMAIN OVER THE E GLFMEX AND S HALF OF FLORIDA SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF THE RATHER WET PATTERN WHICH HAS EXISTED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
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#4 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 03, 2004 4:49 pm

Something to keep an eye on but it only has a couple days before the trough would tear anything developing apart and race it eastwards!
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#5 Postby TS Zack » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:04 pm

Surface Trough.
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#6 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:13 pm

I wish it would head nnw and cool me off. It's HOT!
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#7 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:27 pm

southerngale wrote:I wish it would head nnw and cool me off. It's HOT!


NO KIDDING!!!! CURRENTLY 102ºF WITH 124º HI at weatherbug site near my office!!!!!!
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#8 Postby lilbump3000 » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:27 pm

With these deep troughs thats been digging this summer nothing is coming up out of the gulf. Also with this current trough coming the gulf is close for now.
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#9 Postby BayouVenteux » Tue Aug 03, 2004 5:49 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:With these deep troughs thats been digging this summer nothing is coming up out of the gulf. Also with this current trough coming the gulf is close for now.
Yep. I'm beginning to wonder if this very unusual amplitude pattern is going to stick around through the peak of the season this year. If it continues on into October, it would seem to lend credibility to a lot of preseason landfall forecasts, with the exception of several prognostications regarding Texas getting hit. Seems like in these circumstances, any system that would track into the Gulf it would likely hook N and NE toward the Florida panhandle or toward the peninsula proper.

As for unusual...how many times do you recall 3 "cool" fronts making it out into the Gulf in relatively brief succession in late July and early August? :roll:
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