91L not as impressive on vis imagery

[Derek Ortt]

Just checked some visible imagery, 91L looks more wave than it did yesterday. I believe it was a TD yesterday, but it may not be one now. Not sure. Wish recon was going in today and not tomorrow

[Hyperstorm]

That's right. Yesterday, the system had great upper outflow and circulation, but didn't sustain much convection due to dry air. Today the system has much more convection, but upper level winds (which BTW I think is what's causing the convection to develop...i.e. hot side) are not helping. I think the circulation has been lost and it's just a vigorous tropical wave. If convection persists and UL winds subside, we can see a much tighter LLC develop soon. Not very optimistic about its development though.

[Brent]

5:30am TWO:

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 530 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM ON TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks heathier to me today, deeper convection which I believe underneath lies our center. You may actually not be seeing as much of the overall LL circulation today due to the expanding cold cloud tops. I think we already have a albeit weak TD and if the convection continues to expand and deepen a TS by the time the Recon gets there tomorrow.

[Aquawind]

Other than the growing persistant convection blob..it looks unchanged overnight..evidently the LLC location is not verifiable or at least not under the convection..or it would be a TD imho..

[caneman]

Of course the weaker it stays the better chance it has to track towards the US.

[Brent]

Looks heathier to me today, deeper convection which I believe underneath lies our center. You may actually not be seeing as much of the overall LL circulation today due to the expanding cold cloud tops. I think we already have a albeit weak TD and if the convection continues to expand and deepen a TS by the time the Recon gets there tomorrow.

Yes, it has a nice convection ball.

[canes04]

IMO 91L is getting better organized by the hour.
The envirmont is almost ideal for further development.

canes04

[Derek Ortt]

The data T numbers have decreased from 2.0 to 1.5 so I must not be the only one seeing slightly less organization

[chadtm80]

Derek is right.. Remember everyone convection does not make a more organized system.. It is good to see the convection going, but.. Thats not all it needs

[hurricanemike]

Looks good on IR/VIS Sat this morning:




0805 TWD:

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 500 NM E OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N51W
MOVING WNW 15 KT. THE MID/UPPER LOW HAS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND FAIR OUTFLOW PRIMARILY TO THE NE OF THE SYSTEM.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 51W-54.5W. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

[Brent]

Doesn't that confirm there is an LLC? 1012 mb low?

It looks GREAT on IR. Visible I've been staring at for 10 minutes, there seems to be a slight spin on the southern edge of the convection(where there's more firing now).

[Ola]

There is actually banding starting to form on the south side of the low, this in not looking worse than yesterday, it is looking better. IMO this will become TD2 today.

[Hyperstorm]

The system will need to stop refiring convection near 12N/south of any LLC that it may have or it will have to be declared a TW with no LLC later today. Thunderstorm development in a linear form south of the main ball of convection to the north does not bode well for further development. Don't be mistaken, the Tropical Wave is a vigorous one, but it just doesn't meet the specifications for TD status.

I will be surprised if the NHC pulled the trigger and calls it a TD this morning.

[Brent]

The system will need to stop refiring convection near 12N/south of any LLC that it may have or it will have to be declared a TW with no LLC later today. Thunderstorm development in a linear form south of the main ball of convection to the north does not bode well for further development. Don't be mistaken, the Tropical Wave is a vigorous one, but it just doesn't meet the specifications for TD status.

I will be surprised if the NHC pulled the trigger and calls it a TD this morning.

[OtherHD]

I'm going to have to side with those that say it's looking better. It has more of a classic cyclone appearance with centralized convection near and over the suspected center with decent outflow on all sides. I'm surprised the T #'s went down a bit...

Still expecting TD2 today.

[Brent]

I'm going to have to side with those that say it's looking better. It has more of a classic cyclone appearance with centralized convection near and over the suspected center with decent outflow on all sides. I'm surprised the T #'s went down a bit...

Still expecting TD2 today.

Exactly. I think the LLC is in the convection and that's why you can't see the spin.

[Ola]

The system will need to stop refiring convection near 12N/south of any LLC that it may have or it will have to be declared a TW with no LLC later today. Thunderstorm development in a linear form south of the main ball of convection to the north does not bode well for further development. Don't be mistaken, the Tropical Wave is a vigorous one, but it just doesn't meet the specifications for TD status.

I will be surprised if the NHC pulled the trigger and calls it a TD this morning.

That would be correct in a sense, but does not apply to what I am seeing today. Tha line of convection you are refering to is being pulled north torwards the center. IT actually looks like banding developing to the south getting attached to the circulation, which is a good sign for development.

I do see convection dying to the east side though, but hey this is just a tropical low atm so.....

Still think it will be TD2 today unless there is a change in the current trend.

[Dean4Storms]

We were right!

Na Na Nana Na!