little bit of trouble?--5PM audio now up

[ncweatherwizard]

Alex is barely moving--no doubt about that, and the CONUS trough is barely moving itself. Alex could be around in its general area for up to 36 hours, sitting over the Gulf Stream until the trough pulls it inland.

Here's the forecast for Alex--I'm on the fence right now--it doesn't look great so thinking of moderate or significant intensification is a little premature maybe. But too modest strengthening doesn't make sense with the possibility of the time over water. In about 24 hours, the CONUS trough has only moved about 200 miles--and let's face it and look at patterns--these troughs have stalled out regularly in the Southeast for the past several weeks--so we can't safely look for a movement north until we see a response from Alex.

Forecast 3:

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/alex.html

Audio will be up in about half-hour; I'll try to beat the NHC package, if my dial-up will work--this might be a little easier to explain verbally.

Audio: http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/alexoff1.wav

[Stormchaser16]

I did make a post about this called "Houston do we have a problem?"

Where i noted that the front is generally weakening and the associated trough while deepening is not advancing greatly.

[vacanechaser]

Alex is barely moving--no doubt about that, and the CONUS trough is barely moving itself. Alex could be around in its general area for up to 36 hours, sitting over the Gulf Stream until the trough pulls it inland.

Here's the forecast for Alex--I'm on the fence right now--it doesn't look great so thinking of moderate or significant intensification is a little premature maybe. But too modest strengthening doesn't make sense with the possibility of the time over water. In about 24 hours, the CONUS trough has only moved about 200 miles--and let's face it and look at patterns--these troughs have stalled out regularly in the Southeast for the past several weeks--so we can't safely look for a movement north until we see a response from Alex.

Forecast 3:

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/alex.html

Audio will be up in about half-hour; I'll try to beat the NHC package, if my dial-up will work--this might be a little easier to explain verbally.

true about the possible stal and the time over water.. but just remember, it takes a lot more than just warm water... the upper levels have to be near perfect... that might be hard to do with the trough in the area...

[Stormchaser16]

Well thats the thing, the trough isnt in the area, with the high poking over Alex now, it may provide a small window of oppurtunity for further development

[ncweatherwizard]

Ok, I just don't read anything up here until I post my forecast. And the front weakening is not right now a sign of the trough weakening. This wouldn't happen for several more days, and by that time, Alex would have been drawn northward and out.

[ncweatherwizard]

true about the possible stal and the time over water.. but just remember, it takes a lot more than just warm water... the upper levels have to be near perfect... that might be hard to do with the trough in the area...

That's why my forecast only takes it up to 45kts.

[Stormchaser16]

Well right, the trough isnt weakening, just not moving that much, the front though is weakening quite signifigantly, and it was the front if i recall correctly that was initially supposed to draw this NE out to sea

[Three Blind Mice]

Are we starting to see the effects of sw winds discussed in the 11am adv??

[Stormchaser16]

No not at all.... right now the high is starting to come over it, and convection is to the south, meaning there is still northerly shear over the system

[Brent]

<is confused>

Waiting for the 5pm advisory package from the NHC