Huh? What exactly is HPC saying?

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yoda
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Huh? What exactly is HPC saying?

#1 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:42 pm

This is its FINAL DISCUSSION fot today.. issued at 2:38 PM...
What eexactly are they saying?


THE NEW 12Z GFS WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS 06Z AND 00Z
RUNS AND WE FOLLOWED IT THRU DAY 7 ..WITH TWO NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS.
ITS HANDLES THE SUBTROPICAL SYS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY TURNING THEM PRIMARILY INTO SHEAR AXES BY MON-TUE.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH NHC...HPC FOLLOWED THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
AS IT DID IN THE MID MORNING RELEASE. THE GFS WAS DEEPER AND
FARTHER N WITH ITS FEEDBACK SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER OH
VLY/LOWER GRT LAKES BY WED DAY 5. HPC TONED THIS LOW DOWN BUT KEPT
SOME OF IT...SINCE THERE COULD BE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE
NRN STRAM OF WLYS EVEN AFTER CORRECTING FOR CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

CONCERNING OUR MID-MORNING RELEASE...THE 06Z/30 OPERATIONAL GFS
WAS SIMILAR TO THE PRECEDING 00Z RUN AND WAS FOLLOWED THRU NEXT
WED...WITH 3 NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. FIRST...ON MON DAY 3 WE SHOWED A
LITTLE MORE SYS ON THE COASTAL CAROLINAS GIVEN HOW VIGOROUS THE
SYS E OF THE BAHAMAS NOW LOOKS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SECOND...WE
DID NOT ACCEPT THE GFS SCENARIO OF TURNING ANOTHER INCIPIENT
TROPICAL SYS IN THE GULF OF MEXIO NWD...THEN NEWD...INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND COASTAL GA IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. WE THOUGHT
THERE WAS A GREATER THAN EVEN CHANCE THAT THE DISORGANIZED SYS IN
THE GULF WOULD DRIFT WNW TOWARDS TX RATHER THAN TURN N. CONCERNING
BOTH OF THESE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYS...REFER TO LATEST OUTLOOKS
FROM THE NHC. THIRD...WE DID NOT ACCEPT THE GFS 1002MB LOW WED
OVER SRN INDIANA WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK.
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#2 Postby Rieyeuxs » Fri Jul 30, 2004 2:52 pm

CONCERNING OUR MID-MORNING RELEASE...THE 06Z/30 OPERATIONAL GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE PRECEDING 00Z RUN AND WAS FOLLOWED THRU NEXT WED...WITH 3 NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. FIRST...ON MON DAY 3 WE SHOWED A LITTLE MORE SYS ON THE COASTAL CAROLINAS GIVEN HOW VIGOROUS THE SYS E OF THE BAHAMAS NOW LOOKS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.


Count me in on the don't understand... Are they saying that this is going to develop further than they thought? :?: :?: :?:
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