All eyes to the BOC....

[Guest]

This evening a small and slowly growing flareup is building over the yucatan and is strarting to move over the Bay of Campeche. This may be nothing, but still something to look at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Comments welcome.

[HURAKAN]

Basicly & mainly afternoon pop-up. It should dissipate in a few hours.

[Guest]

I'm not sure about that, theres been a lot of flare up activity lately over the yucatan and this might be a sign that something actually wants to develop.

[rbaker]

typical afternoon and evening thunderstorms, just like here in fla.

[kevin]

The Yucatan is a landmass surrounded by water (a peninsula) in the tropics. This is very normal. Comment when there is a low in the area or when nhc has an eye on it. They are the ones looking the hardest for everything.

[BayouVenteux]

Yep . Just a big ol' honkin' seabreeze induced MCS, which is a welcome relief after another hot summer day on the Yu-P. It's a lot like south Florida down there...limestone underneath a thin layer of sand...heats up like a skillet. MUY CALIENTE !!!!

[rainstorm]

nothing to worry about

[Guest]

I respectfully disagree with y'all, I think it is something to watch.

[hurricanemike]

noctural t-storms...wont last.

[ColdFront77]

We are here to watch convection, especially those that have even somewhat of a circulation... which have a low chance to no chance to develop.

I wholehearted agree with those areas of showers and thunderstorms that have absolutely no chance, because they have no circulation whatsoever; if I were to think something like that... I wouldn't be interested in meteorology one bit.

This is an issue that makes me not want to post as often as I used to.

[senorpepr]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Convection is dieing off quite a bit. You've gotta respect the sea-breeze.

[FWBHurricane]

Im not really worried about that cluster of storms because the convection now has died off and its not even really in the water, most of the convection ( or whats left ) is still inland. Now whats really eyecatching is a cluster of storms in the bahamas, there isnt alot of convection but there is some that seems to have a slight spin to it. It looks pretty healthy but it needs more convection. I dont think its going to do any soon though..there is some dry being pulled into the circulation, not alot but some, and its moving in the direction of an oncomming trough. Infact it looks like it might miss the through by a little...it may have sone small effects on the system but it dosnt look like it would pick it up and move it out to sea.

Water Vapor loop- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[CocoaBill]

Our local TV met (for what that is worth) said the surface circulation in the Bahamas area bears some watching.

[Derecho]

Every cloud over the GOM (and BOC in particular) flat out isn't something to watch or that needs to have "all eyes" on....

The perception is the GOM is a tropical loaded gun that can suddenly generate tropical systems left and right, and it simply isn't true;

Haven't looked at the BOC specifically, but a tropical system probably forms in the BOC once every 4-5 years on average; yet there's going to be a cloud over the BOC every week or so during the tropical season. So the development % is going to end up pretty darn low

[rbaker]

being that we haven't had any storms yet, the sst's are up and the gulf is prime example. At 32c in some areas, with no way to dissapate all the heat and energy over that water, it's like a pot of water boiling, waiting to overflow. I hope its not like a 92 season where our 1st one was Andrew...and we all know the rest of the story.

[Derecho]

Yep, looked at 1903-2003......

On average one TS or Hurricane forms in the BOC slightly less than every 4 years; a hurricane forms there every 8 years. (I used a liberal definition of the BOC extending up to 22N Latitude, or roughly just barely south of Tampico.)

2 Cat 4s, No Cat 3s, 2 Cat 3s, 8 Cat 1s, and 12 TSes have formed there in the last 100 years.

An interesting contrast to the number of times a season we're supposed to be staring at the BOC waiting for something to develop.

[yoda]

Yep, looked at 1903-2003......

On average one TS or Hurricane forms in the BOC slightly less than every 4 years; a hurricane forms there every 8 years. (I used a liberal definition of the BOC extending up to 22N Latitude, or roughly just barely south of Tampico.)

2 Cat 4s, No Cat 3s, 2 Cat 3s, 8 Cat 1s, and 12 TSes have formed there in the last 100 years.

An interesting contrast to the number of times a season we're supposed to be staring at the BOC waiting for something to develop.

HUH? I think I know what u mean though...

[vbhoutex]

From this mornings 8:05 TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
ALONG 87W/88W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. LITTLE CONVECTION IS
NOTED IN THE ATLANTIC AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY BE
ENHANCED TODAY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
... A WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MEXICAN PACIFIC COAST NEAR THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SE GLFMEX AND THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE WEAKENING STATIONARY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE HAS PRODUCED SOME DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
REDUCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...



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