More confirmation of no el nino in the equatorial pacific

[cycloneye]

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ ... y_ps32.gif

This data confirms what previous data showed and that is el nino has faded away as at el nino 3-4 in the central equatorial pacific where it was more warmer the waters now +0.5c degrees are found there compared with between +2.0c and +1.5c.

This factor will be a favorable one for more activity in the atlantic basin as neutral to weak la nina conditions are a given but this is the tip of the iceberg because there are more factors that will guide what kind of season it will be but this factor alone will be favorable.

[Anonymous]

Wouldn't call it confirmation, more like strong evidence. So far, the ENSO has behaved exactly how TWW and I predicted it to way back in November. Since then, we have been calling for weak La Nina or neutral conditions to be present this hurricane season. With this El Nino ready to kick the bucket, we are sticking to this forecast with very high confidence.

Word of caution, just because a La Nina may end up developing (La Nina enhances hurricane activity), that does not promise a very active season. There are so many other factors and climatological patterns that have to be evaluated to make a good seasonal forecast. This year, are the other factors going to be inhibiting and cancel the La Nina out? Or are they going to be positive and result in a very active season like what we saw in the late 90s? TWW, Kevin, and I know the answer. We will release our seasonal forecast around May 25. 8)