Something noticeable

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I've been running the last visible satellite loops of the SW Caribbean and I'm starting to notice what appears to be a circulation developing....I see the following winds: N, S, E...W wind is a little hard to see but one may be developing...is this just thunderstorms developing causing an illusion? Also, I can't really tell, but shear appears to be relaxing somewhat in the pocket the disturbance is in. Does someone have any surface data from that location?

[Air Force Met]

I see a mid and upper circulation but no ll circ. Latest quickscat shows only a little turning.

[bbadon]

I begin to watch that area closely today. I believe if we get another burst of convection we may just have something there. It is pretty close to Nic. but it is not moving much. And thoughts on future movement?

[Air Force Met]

The GFS takes it WNW and eventually into the SW GOM over the next week or so.

[Anonymous]

No development would occur in the Caribbean anytime soon. There is too much shear and it won't be retreating anytime soon. As AF Met pointed out, the GFS does take the wave and associated MLC over the Yucatan and into the GOM. The model then pulls the remnant moisture into the Gulf Coast. Potential for development in the GOM appears to be slim at this time.

[Wnghs2007]

No development would occur in the Caribbean anytime soon. There is too much shear and it won't be retreating anytime soon. As AF Met pointed out, the GFS does take the wave and associated MLC over the Yucatan and into the GOM. The model then pulls the remnant moisture into the Gulf Coast. Potential for development in the GOM appears to be slim at this time.

We shall see. Ok. Ok. I know. Everything I see looks like it is going to develop. But I just have a strange feeling that this will be Alex come November 30 when we look back at the season

[*StOrmsPr*]

I've been running the last visible satellite loops of the SW Caribbean and I'm starting to notice what appears to be a circulation developing....I see the following winds: N, S, E...W wind is a little hard to see but one may be developing...is this just thunderstorms developing causing an illusion? Also, I can't really tell, but shear appears to be relaxing somewhat in the pocket the disturbance is in. Does someone have any surface data from that location?

805 TWD
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?

TROPICAL WAVE REPOSITIONED ALONG 94W S OF 20N MOVING WEST 15-20
KT. A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND JUSTIFIES THE
REPOSITIONING OF THE WAVE FARTHER WEST FROM ITS EXTRAPOLATED
POSITION. MOST ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE E
PACIFIC.

[Anonymous]

I've been running the last visible satellite loops of the SW Caribbean and I'm starting to notice what appears to be a circulation developing....I see the following winds: N, S, E...W wind is a little hard to see but one may be developing...is this just thunderstorms developing causing an illusion? Also, I can't really tell, but shear appears to be relaxing somewhat in the pocket the disturbance is in. Does someone have any surface data from that location?

805 TWD
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?

TROPICAL WAVE REPOSITIONED ALONG 94W S OF 20N MOVING WEST 15-20
KT. A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND JUSTIFIES THE
REPOSITIONING OF THE WAVE FARTHER WEST FROM ITS EXTRAPOLATED
POSITION. MOST ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE E
PACIFIC.

The LLC is in the EPAC.