Houston-Galveston Forecast Disc........Tropical Moisture

[KatDaddy]

FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
TO LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS VERY IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO SETX...PW OF 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES MAY BE HEADED THIS WAY...IF SO IT COULD GET VERY WET!
WE ARE INTO THE 3 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF ALLISON'S MEANDERINGS AROUND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...TIS THE SEASON. STAY TUNED.

[tano68]

Thanks for posting this KatDaddy, I just got finished reading it. When they mentioned Allison, I was like "uh-oh"! Don't like the sound of that at all. It might be a very busy week around Houston. Keep us updated.

Tano

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like some VERY heavy rain will be impacting SE Texas and Louisiana this week. I don't like the mention of Allison either. The vermilion river here in Lafayette is still in flood stage from all the heavy rain back in early may!

[Dan]

I would like to see some of tropical juice being pulled into the interior Southeast portions of the US come late in the week.

[wx247]

Aren't they just mentioning the Allison anniversary, not that this rain will be Allisonesque?

[Stormsfury]

I would like to see some of tropical juice being pulled into the interior Southeast portions of the US come late in the week.

Lord know, we need it ... BADLY ...

Latest drought monitor places most of the Carolinas under at least moderately dry conditions with the Upstate of South Carolina, and Western North Carolina under moderate drought conditions ...

Current Palmer Index is a moderate drought with one region in severe drought in South Carolina (North Central)..

[Stormsfury]

Aren't they just mentioning the Allison anniversary, not that this rain will be Allisonesque?

PWAT's in the 2.2 to 2.4 range (a very saturated atmosphere) would produce rainfall rates much like those seen in Allison, but as long as the potential storms do NOT stall over the same areas, it'll be ok ... but rainfall rates could be in the 2-4" range per hour with the heavier convection with those kinds of PWAT's.

SF

[Dan]

I would like to see some of tropical juice being pulled into the interior Southeast portions of the US come late in the week.

Lord know, we need it ... BADLY ...

Latest drought monitor places most of the Carolinas under at least moderately dry conditions with the Upstate of South Carolina, and Western North Carolina under moderate drought conditions ...

maybe my wish could be granted, GSP mentions tropical connection in their afternoon AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 6 2004


.LONG TERM...

A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING A HIGHER POP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK
LOWS FORMING NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT HOW FAR SOUTH IT
GETS IS STILL UP FOR SPECTULATION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
SHOULD HELP IN SHOWER AND STORM FORMATION. SOME TROPICAL
CONTRIBUTION IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND WITH MODELS BRINGING SOME
VORTS NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING BACK NORTH
BY NEXT SUNDAY

[crazy4disney]

Allison.... *shudders* I can't believe it has been 3 years already.

And hi, Tano, I think we must be neighbors!

-gina-

[KatDaddy]

New Houston-Galveston Forecast Discussion. Very early in the season for this type of talk. Looks to be an interesting week along the Gulf Coast


THEN MORE IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND PW
SURGING INTO THE 2 TO 2.4" RANGE RIDE IN TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THESE PERIODS WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT LITTLE CAP TO BE HAD. THE AREA COULD SEE SOME
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS ASSUMING THE SYSTEM DOES NOT BECOME MORE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. NCEP 5 DAY QPF PAINTING 1.5" OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH 1" AMOUNTS OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

WE ARE INTO THE 3 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF ALLISON'S MEANDERINGS AROUND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...TIS THE SEASON. STAY TUNED.

[tano68]

Yes, I think we are neighbors! I know you understand when I said it kinda freaks me to hear the NWS mention a situation similar to Allison (or however they worded it). It worries me for sure.

I'm sure we'll be "talking" alot this coming week.

Tano

[crazy4disney]

Yes, I think we are neighbors! I know you understand when I said it kinda freaks me to hear the NWS mention a situation similar to Allison (or however they worded it). It worries me for sure.

I'm sure we'll be "talking" alot this coming week.

Tano

How bad did you get it during Allison? Were you in one of the FEMA buy-out areas? I'm directly on the Pearland/Friendswood line, and it must be a slight high spot. The subdivisions on both sides flooded bad, and even one street up from me. I think it was only because of my house design that I didn't flood -- I have a side patio door and no back door. Afterwards, when I went out and measured, the water line was about 8 inches up in the back yard... there's no way that wouldn't have come easily in. My side is bricked and a bit higher. The nail-biting thing was, I had only been in my house for 3 weeks -- my flood insurance wasn't in effect yet.

It seems they just upped pops again for us in the latest discussion and forecast... it's not sounding pretty. Kinda creepy with it being the anniversary, and all!

Stay dry, everyone...

-gina-

[bbadon]

test

[Suzi Q]

Well, this looks special! (NOT!)

FLUS44 KHGX 071201
HWOHGX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-081200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON INTO TUESDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STREAM OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN COLUMBUS AND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA AND EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING DEVELOP ( I have a sick feeling when they say this). A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING DEVELOPS. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WHICH MAY AGGRAVATE A DEVELOPING OR
ALREADY EXISTING FLOOD THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR TONIGHT.
$$

VB, Heads up fellow spotter!

[Yankeegirl]

Ya know, doesnt it just figure.. I just rented a tiller to get my flower bed in the front yard ready to go, and I just had both of the cars washed yesterday... My dog starts dog training this evening... Wonderful weather... I guess Im not going to water my lawn this morning...

[tano68]

Unfortunately I was up at IAH Airport trying to fly to Vegas for my parents 50 year anniversary when Allison hit. We didn't make it! We were on the runway, 4th in line to take off (at 1am) and they announced that the control towers were shut down. No problem, get me off!!! It took us 2 hours to make it 3 miles to a hotel. But we made it and stayed there for 2 days.

My house was okay, thank God. But alot of people I know were not so fortunate . It was something I will never forget and definetly do not want to go through again!

I don't feel so good about this up coming week either.

Tano

[bbadon]

Could someone explain this map to me. As far as I can see it shows favorable conditions in the western gulf in 36 hours. http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[Wnghs2007]

Could someone explain this map to me. As far as I can see it shows favorable conditions in the western gulf in 36 hours. http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

The reds and up to orange equal Weak wind shear which is favorable for tropical development in the Western Gulf. The more Yellow and Blue areas you see and the darker the blue and yellows get the more shear. Look at the bottom and you will see the windshear speed.

[PTrackerLA]

It does look pretty favorable after 24 hours but there has to be something down there first. Just some convection near the coast as of right now but it will be something to watch. Think the rain will be the main problem this week.

[vbhoutex]

If you check the water vapor maps there is abundant moisture to our S and SW. It is being pushed N towards our area by the Western periphery of the Bermuda high which currently is way far West than it normally is. That coupled with the persistent convection in the W Carribean whose moisture is also being pulled our way brings us into a situation which may produce copius rains over the next few days. The shear map does show lessening shear during that term also, but our SST's are not high enough to sustain any real development.