Interesting article from the Miami Herald

[BonesXL]

Check this article out from the Miami Herald...any comments?
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Experts: 5-day predictions imperfect

With another hurricane season almost here, forecasters urged South Floridians to take every storm seriously.

BY MARTIN MERZER

mmerzer@herald.com


The forecasters nailed it.

Five days before Hurricane Isabel made landfall, forecasters said last season's most fierce and dangerous storm would strike North Carolina's Outer Banks -- and it did, validating a prediction that seemed nearly perfect then but worries meteorologists now.

Their message to you, with another hurricane season just six days away:

We're good, but not always that good. Pay attention during hurricane season. Don't take anything for granted, especially the long-term, five-day forecasts.

''I'm really concerned that expectations are too high,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. ``People may think we can do that well on every hurricane, and that's just unrealistic.''

Isabel, a top-line Category 5 monster on the five-category Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of 160 mph, alarmed people from Key West to New York City.

And it was still 1,100 miles from the coast when the five-day forecasts pointed to North Carolina.

Those long-range predictions were released to the public for the first time last year, and they now are a standard element of every forecast.

Still, Mayfield and his team will candidly tell you that predictions made that far in advance rarely prove accurate.

The point: You must keep an eye on every storm that develops during the six-month hurricane season that begins Tuesday.

''Isabel was a very well-behaved storm,'' said Lixion Avila, a forecaster at the hurricane center. ``Most are not that well behaved.''

Emergency managers are particularly concerned.

Even with all of that advance warning, some people along North Carolina's coast did not leave mandatory evacuation zones.

Others found themselves in unexpected trouble well inland, and a hurricane is still a hurricane -- it will inflict considerable pain.

Isabel, which weakened before it hit the coast as a Category 2 hurricane, was directly responsible for 16 deaths and $3.37 billion in damage, officials said. Overall, severe tropical weather killed at least 48 people last year in the United States, the Caribbean and Latin America, according to the hurricane center.

In addition, though the accuracy of track forecasts -- where the storm might go -- have improved markedly in recent years, forecasts of intensity -- how hard that storm might whack you -- still need a lot of work.

The average error for a forecast of more than 48 hours remains one full category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. That means that a storm predicted to strike the coast as a moderate Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph wind might arrive as an intense 120-mph Category 3 hurricane.

''We do a pretty good job with the track, but how strong will the storm be in two or three days?'' said Richard Pasch, a forecaster at the hurricane center. ``That's still an issue.''

Carlos Castillo, Miami-Dade's director of emergency management, notes that South Florida has not been directly hit by an intense hurricane since Andrew bulldozed much of south Miami-Dade in August 1992.

''In a general sense, the more time that passes after a storm affects us, the more that people get a little too comfortable,'' Castillo said. ``And remember, a lot of people have moved here since Andrew and they don't know what it's like to go through a storm.''

And a lot of them live in the newly expanded condominium canyons of Miami Beach and coastal Hollywood, places with many more residents but no additional roads to expedite evacuations.

In summary, our luck is certain to run out soon. Scientists say that the oceanic and atmospheric forces that create hurricanes remain unusually fertile.

''We anticipate 2004 to be considerably more active than the average season during the inactive 1970-1994 period,'' said William Gray, the Colorado State University meteorologist who issues seasonal predictions of activity.

Gray recently predicted 14 named storms that turn into eight hurricanes, three of them intense. He planned to tweak that forecast in late May. The long-term annual average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes.

This year, for the first time, Gray will attempt to calculate each county's exact odds of being struck by a tropical storm, a hurricane and an intense hurricane -- a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm.

Those predictions will be found on this website: http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane (click on area you want, then on ''I'' box, which will give you 2004 predictions).

It is important to note that these are the odds -- as calculated by Gray and his team -- that a storm will hit the county at some point during the season.

''Whereas individual hurricane landfall events cannot be accurately forecast months in advance, the total seasonal probability of landfall can be forecast with statistical skill,'' said Gray, whose more general predictions of activity have been reasonably accurate in the past.

Others do not believe that landfall can be predicted that far in advance, even on a seasonal basis, and they don't see any real benefit to trying.

The best strategy, they say, is to consider every storm a threat until proven otherwise.

''The probability always will seem small, but it only takes one hurricane in your city to make it seem like a very bad hurricane season,'' Mayfield said. ``We don't want anyone to let their guard down.''

Said Castillo: ``With another hurricane season coming, we don't want people to panic, but we do want them to listen to us when we tell them to take action.''

[Typhoon_Willie]

Nice article!

[Guest]

Good stuff & good advice.

[Hurricanehink]

Nice article indeed. I just hope I won't have to worry here

[BonesXL]

Thanks...I leave in Miami if I get any local NHC news I'll post it.
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Luis