Update on Disturbance!! Please respond with comments.

Wnghs2007 · #1 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon May 24, 2004 1:42 pm

A 1006 Mb low level ciruculation center is shown below. This system is under shear that is weakening, and over the next 24 hours is expected to decrease from 10-20 knts to 3-8 knts over area of concern. Possible Tropical Cyclone Development over next 36 hours according to NHC Map. Looks good folks. Just need a little more convection and we could have Tropical Depression 1 on our hands. Stay tuned for the latest developments on this rapidly developing situation from the Greater North Gwinnett Weather Center ( aka my new club I am starting up next school year) . Thoughts, Commments, Questions welcome

OtherHD · #2 Postby **OtherHD** » Mon May 24, 2004 2:05 pm

The area that you have circled is a transient mid level swirl. The low level center is in the east central Bahamas.

Aquawind · #3 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon May 24, 2004 2:08 pm

I am not convinced. There have been a number swirls within the convective area as usual with a broad low pressure and convection galore. Look like milky mid-upper level clouds. If you look at this area on a loop it is moving ENE. No banding.. no infow..no radar echos...just a swirl on a picture from far away imho.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Click Zoom and then the area of interest..

Wnghs2007 · #4 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon May 24, 2004 2:15 pm

Well the LLC is not in the area that the NHC has pointed out for development. What is a new one going to form?

Website · #5 Postby **Brent** » Mon May 24, 2004 2:16 pm

DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. It's hardly something to get worked up over.

Wnghs2007 · #6 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon May 24, 2004 2:22 pm

Brent wrote:DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. It's hardly something to get worked up over.

Develoment is not unlikely dude. It is something to get worked up on. when the NHC sees development that is something to get worked up on.

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon May 24, 2004 2:42 pm

KC, what I want to know is how you determine where the 1006mb low is located??? Do you do it by looking for swirls in the clouds or do you get information from a reliable source that has pinpointed it for you. If so, what is that source?

Otherwise I see your constant calls that there is a LLCC as "-removed-". WE ARE ALL EXCITED ABOUT THE TROPICS RIGHT NOW and ready for something to track as it develops, but EVERY swirl in the clouds is NOT a LLCC. There are many midlevel vortices located within the broad low pressure area we are all looking at and nothing anywhere near consolidating into a LLCC at this time.

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 24, 2004 3:18 pm

Although all tropical cyclones have different aspects, we have to remember last year before Odette we saw for days just an area of extremely disorganized showers, then in less than one day the area organized amazingly.

Sandy Delgado

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Mon May 24, 2004 3:25 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
Brent wrote:DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. It's hardly something to get worked up over.

Develoment is not unlikely dude. It is something to get worked up on. when the NHC sees development that is something to get worked up on.

POSSIBLE.

They have to do that. The chances are still low, and even if it develops, I think it will be a TD or MAYBE just a WEAK Alex.

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 24, 2004 3:29 pm

I don't think development is unlikely, the system just needs less shear and a little more time. Is too early to say if yes or no.

Sandy Delgado

Storm Man · #11 Postby **Storm Man** » Mon May 24, 2004 4:00 pm

I Have 24 Hours To Be Correct Lets Waite And See!
Check This Out!!
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

Update on Disturbance!! Please respond with comments.

Update on Disturbance!! Please respond with comments.

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