Area of Interest Update!

[Guest]

Area of Interest for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin
For May 23, 2004
updated at 8:40pm/et
by
Barometer Bob Brookens
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Area of Interest Update!

After receiving the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement from the National Hurricane Center, I decided to once again take a look at the forecast models. The NOGAPS continues to show little or no organization of this area, but a wider spread of precip over the next 48-72 hours across the Greater Antilles and Southern Bahama's. Even though there is a weak 1008MB low pressure near the southwestrn coast of Haiti, any further development will be limited being the area in question will be interacting with the mountainous regions of Hispanola. Thus limiting any further organization, or development to a tropical depression.
But, as stated by the NHC, continual rains will be the main problem. I meantioned this during the Barometer Bob Show, and I also stated that I wouldn't be surprised to see this statement from the NHC over the weekend.
What we can expect to see, and this is based on the forecast models, is this area to cross Hispanola spreading rains into the Southeastern Bahama's and an area of closed circulation to develop by late Tuesday north of Puerto Rico. The GFS shows this well, as the NOGAPS keeps the area a more broad low pressure. By late week, this area doesn't move much, and showers and rains will continue across portions of the Eastern Greater Antilles, especially Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a trough extends southward across the region. The MRF is also creating a closed circulation, but not at the strength of the GFS. This 1012MB low weakens to 1016MB and moves slowly north and northeastward and merges with a trough forecast to exit the Eastern Seaboard late in the week and over the weekend. Thus agreeing on the slow movement, and lack of organization. The reasoning to the lack of organzation is shear. This area is being affected by a strong shear enviroment, but will it weaken, and allow for a tropical depression to form? We will be watching!
Keep in touch with your LOCAL WEATHER OUTLETS, and the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER for further information!

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well we will have to wait and see what developes here. It sure is an interesting start to the hurricane season!

[Rainband]

Excellent AOI Bob..as always!!!

[Yankeegirl]

Bob... You are in top of it... Keep up the great job, and I will be sticking around here for sure! I was in the Hurricane Hollow chat room for the last 2 seasons, i somehow stumbled to this web site.. I love it!
~Lisa

[cycloneye]

As always Bob great anaylisis that you do with those area of interest updates.

[southerngale]

Bob... You are in top of it... Keep up the great job, and I will be sticking around here for sure! I was in the Hurricane Hollow chat room for the last 2 seasons, i somehow stumbled to this web site.. I love it!
~Lisa

Oh kewl. What was your nick in the chatroom?

[Storm Man]

New Image Out Of Puerto Rico Radar:
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

[Stephanie]

Welcome Lisa from a fellow Yankee!

[Guest]

Thanks folks!!!!!
I will be in chat in a little while. I mentioned the low pressure being over the Southeastern Bahama's late today and Tuesday. Seems this has occured, based on the 00zulu tropical weather discussion that was just released.
Now, what will happen from here, I will be updating the area of interest soon, and will post it here and at Hurricane Hollow.