Area of Interest for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin

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Area of Interest for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin
For May 19, 2004
updated at 9:30pm/et
Barometer Bob Brookens
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Area of Interest Update!



There is an area of low pressure that stretches across Central America, from the Southwestern Caribbean into the Eastern Pacific. Now some of the models I beleive are over estimating the potential for strengthening. The GFDL brings this to tropical storm status after it exits the landmass of Central America by late Friday and into Saturday. The NOGAPS, keeps the development low, but a closed circulation of 1008MB off the coast of Central America moving northward very slowly late in the weekend. The GFS, which is similar to the NOGAPS taking an area of weak low pressure north and northeastward across Cuba. This is the more logical solution, being a slight weakening in the ridge across Florida and the Bahama's over the weekend, and the shear tendancies showing some weakening of the shear south of the Greater Antilles. But, with the shear still from west to east north of Cuba and Hispanola, any development will be slow to occur, if any at all. Now, what will we see from this area of interest? We will be watching for tropical rains to continue across portions of Nicuragua, and Central America the next couple of days. This is the main reasoning for the Special Tropical Weather Statement by the NHC. These rains can cause flooding, and due to the mountainous region, midslides and flash flooding. Now, as we approach the weekend, we will be watching to see if a center of circulation develops, and organizes. If this occurs, then we could see a system that may reach tropical storm stus breifly. This of course will depend on the shear weakening more, as shown in the 24 hour shear tendencies, and if the 6 day forecast holds, little or no development is likely. We will of course be watching to see what happens, and I will have more during the Barometer Bob Show on Thursday night at 9pm/et.
Keep in touch with your LOCAL WEATHER OUTLETS, and the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER for further information!