GFDL start plots on invest 90L

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 19, 2004 1:58 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04051917

They dissipate it at 12 hours at this initial run but those change with a new run so expect more plots from this model tonight.

Typhoon_Willie · #2 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Wed May 19, 2004 2:02 pm

Ok will look forward to more information as it becomes available!

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Wed May 19, 2004 2:03 pm

looks like a lopsided storm on the animation. Time will tell what happens!!! :wink:

Steve H. · #4 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed May 19, 2004 2:07 pm

Luis, check the 12Z GFDL that goes to hour 126. It develops it south of Costa Rica into a hurricane as it crosses Honduras and then a tropical storm heading north towards Jamaica at 126 hours. See the Experimental TC site.

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Wed May 19, 2004 2:12 pm

Steve H. wrote:Luis, check the 12Z GFDL that goes to hour 126. It develops it south of Costa Rica into a hurricane as it crosses Honduras and then a tropical storm heading north towards Jamaica at 126 hours. See the Experimental TC site.

I was looking and I couldn't see it :lol:

Then I looked at the close up to the right. I see what your saying steve :wink:

It is only a small area of green but indeed a cane for a bit :wink:

Josephine96 · #6 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed May 19, 2004 4:01 pm

Bring on the storms!

#7 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed May 19, 2004 4:06 pm

Geez...the models are all over the place today. They all agree that some sort of low pressure will develop (I think it probably has already)...but the solutions are not very consistent even within each distinct run from the models.

For example...the 12Z GFS wants to develop something out of a low pressure trough with the bulk of the low developing (not moving) east of 75W and heading up to the DR. The UKMET also holds more of an open trough but is also further west than the last few runs.

In a little more detail with what has already been pointed out with the GFDL...in one of the more bizarre scenarios I can remember seeing...it maintains the initialized low for 24 hours...drops it...spins another one up over the west coast of Nicaragua...then redevelops another low on the east coast of Nicaragua...they dance about a little and the Pacific system becomes the main feature in 126 hours after crossing basins back into the Caribbean...then it hurls back toward the Yucatan.

Also...I think it's pretty clear how unreliable the BAM/LBAR/AE98 models can be. The BAM models want to make the system do a huge left turn...

Ah...anyway...at least we have something to talk about...

MW

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed May 19, 2004 4:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/04051917

They dissipate it at 12 hours at this initial run but those change with a new run so expect more plots from this model tonight.

Typical GFDL run.

GFDL start plots on invest 90L

GFDL start plots on invest 90L

Re: GFDL starts plots on invest 90L

Who is online