A STDS for a system over land??

[MGC]

Sorry, but I think the NHC is a bit premature in issuing a STDS for a system that is landlocked. A STDS should be used in a situation where potential development is imminent, not days away. The "system" the NHC is concerned about currently looks pitiful on satellite and is under considerable shear. If the system moves over water and the shear relaxes then there might be a chance for development. Right now I'd prog the chances of a named system at 20%..................MGC

[Rainband]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=29738 Shear values are relaxing

[MGC]

UL shear forecast are way too unreliable....we shall see....MGC

[Rainband]

Yep. Time will tell. At least we have something to watch for the time being

[Steve H.]

This IS a tropical disturbance and IS dropping heavy rains over the area. This statement is for those who could get caught in floods and mudslides, which are common in these countries where drainoff and construction is poor. Could mean life or death for many. Statement warranted IMO.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I have to agree there Steve! The statment is warranted for those countries...

[Brent]

Yeah... the NHC just doesn't cover the U.S.

[Guest]

I see not only may we have a early start to the season but we also have an early start @ NHC bashing.

[Brent]

I see not only may we have a early start to the season but we also have an early start @ NHC bashing.

Surprise, surprise.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes it looks like the bashing has begun!

[OuterBanker]

The main reason for posting the tws was because of flooding potential. 9,701 people died in central america during hurricane Mitch because of flooding, not winds. If the statement saves one life it is well worth the effort.

[Rainband]

The main reason for posting the tws was because of flooding potential. 9,701 people died in central america during hurricane Mitch because of flooding, not winds. If the statement saves one life it is well worth the effort.

It was actually estimated at up to 11,000 http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Port_Richey.html#PUB I agree one person saved by this satement makes it worth it.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes if this statement does save at least one life then it is well worth it!

[MWatkins]

Ok...

1. Satellite imagery and surface observations show a distinct but broad area of low pressure...creating some very heavy rainfall in Central America.

2. Every Global forecast model...EVERY SINGLE ONE...have been advertising this system for several days now. I was skeptical, as were several forecasters/NWS personnel/folks here. But look down there now.

Usually...if we were in the arbitrary date parameters of the "hurricane season" details about this system would be handled using the typical TWO. But...since we aren't in season yet, the only forecast product available for use is the STDS.

So...this product lands in the lap of the media, local forecasters throughout the basin, NWS offices, and people like us who follow this stuff. But we are a small small subset of the general public. The forecasters with access to media will pass the info to everyone else.

Remember the pre-internet days, when weather folks got their information on stuff from the Weather Channel or their local mets? Well, 99.9999% of the world is still like that. If I quizzed the 3,000 people here on campus (work) and asked them what a STDS or TWO was...they would probably guess they were diseases.

I'm in the school of thinking that more information is better than less information.

MW

[cycloneye]

Ok...

1. Satellite imagery and surface observations show a distinct but broad area of low pressure...creating some very heavy rainfall in Central America.

2. Every Global forecast model...EVERY SINGLE ONE...have been advertising this system for several days now. I was skeptical, as were several forecasters/NWS personnel/folks here. But look down there now.

Usually...if we were in the arbitrary date parameters of the "hurricane season" details about this system would be handled using the typical TWO. But...since we aren't in season yet, the only forecast product available for use is the STDS.

So...this product lands in the lap of the media, local forecasters throughout the basin, NWS offices, and people like us who follow this stuff. But we are a small small subset of the general public. The forecasters with access to media will pass the info to everyone else.

Remember the pre-internet days, when weather folks got their information on stuff from the Weather Channel or their local mets? Well, 99.9999% of the world is still like that. If I quizzed the 3,000 people here on campus (work) and asked them what a STDS or TWO was...they would probably guess they were diseases.

I'm in the school of thinking that more information is better than less information.

MW

Agree 100% MW.

[Rainband]

excellent post MW Great points!!!

[Guest]

Well said MW.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I have to agree that was a excellent post MW!

[MGC]

I'm not bashing the NHC them folks do a good job. Heavy rains, yep they will get plenty the next couple of day. However, a FLOOD WATCH or WARNING is more appropriate at this time............MGC

[Matthew5]

Hey MGC do you think Isabel was a hurricane?