Cloud Pattern Taking Familiar Shape

[MWatkins]

I can't put this image up on a web page (I made one with nice, little yellow arrows) but the overall could pattern is starting to look a little better organized (but yet still very broad).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

One you put that image into motion there is some distinct turning visible in the imagery...with look to be the initial makings of some cirrus cloud arcs.

On top of that, water vapor imagery shows a fairly well saturated environment in and around the system:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

Shear values according to this imagery, and CIMMS analysis, continue to recede, down to 10 knots or less in some places...looks like we may be getting a little bit of a ridge in the upper levels:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Finally, the 0Z GFS guidance suggests the suptropical jet will transition from it's current zonal flow and become more amplified with time, which will allow for a fairly decent environment in the Caribbean (although since the GFS develops the system some there could be some cause/effect in the model):

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... =Animation

SST's in the area are marginal but warm enough to support tropical development:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atl_anal.gif

With all of these things in mind...it looks like if development continues...and of course that's a big if...then the system will be warm core/tropical in nature.

Gonna be an interesting couple of days.

MW

[Brent]

Is the thinking still that whatever develops will head northeast and not towards the U.S.?

[Rainband]

With all of these things in mind...it looks like if development continues...and of course that's a big if...then the system will be warm core/tropical in nature.

Gonna be an interesting couple of days.

MW

Thanks for the info..indeed it is

[KatDaddy]

A strong high pressure ridge will develop across the S US and GOM over the next 6-10 days which should keep the US safe. If it meanders over a week things could be different as the troughs ebb and flow.

[Matthew5]

Thanks Mw you make a very good tropical discussion

[GalvestonDuck]

A strong high pressure ridge will develop across the S US and GOM over the next 6-10 days which should keep the US safe. If it meanders over a week things could be different as the troughs ebb and flow.

Trying to finalize plans for an outdoor wedding during Memorial Day weekend. That's all I needed to know.

[ColdFront77]

I heard the high pressure ridge is expected to move eastward through the southeastern states and into the western Atlantic; the speed of this ridge will be an important factor in the movement of the low in the southwestern Caribbean.