Uh oh- warm spot in the East Pac...

[hurricanetrack]

Now I know it is just one snap shot from the OTIS site, but tonight's look at the SST anomalies does show a decent sized warm area in the east Pacific. In fact, it is quite warm as compared to where temps were recently.

I have never predicted that an El Nino would develop- I have no skills to make such predictions, but I have worried that one would show up with little warning and thrwart the hurricane season. Hey- they say this time of year is the "predictibility barrier" and maybe an El Nino is now on the way. Some of the computer models were calling for it.

See for yourself here:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

If the region grows and expands over the coming days, then I'm going to start sweating it a little. But only a little.

[Anonymous]

Warming in the equatorial Pacific was expected with the return of the negative MJO. Additional warming should be expected over the next week or so. I know you've said this already, but don't be alarmed by daily fluctuations. Don't worry about another another 97 Nino, SSTAs and subsurface temps were a lot warmer in May 97. If we see a gradual warming trend over a monthly period then we may be seeing an onset of El Nino conditions. But that isn't expected attm.

[cycloneye]

Fluctuations happen in a very common way in the equatorial pacific and those kind of things about more yellow one day and more blue another day are a daily occurrance but what I can say is that the cool area at el nino 1-2 has becomed a little more smaller and el nino 3-4 are at the same situation as in the past 2 months warm anomalys.But for el nino to make an apperance all the regions have to warm up and turn yellow from South America to after the dateline.Even if at some point a weak el nino (Which I dont expect) appears it wont make a difference because other factors will balance the ENSO and still the atlantic will be active.