According To Recent Storm 2K Polls

[Guest]

Neutral conditions will prevail in the Pacific as far as El Nino/La Nina goes.

Florida is at high risk for landfalling tropical systems.

The Caribbean & surrounding islands are also at high risk.

Alex will form in the GOM sometime around mid to
late June.

Its difficult so say which direction a storm will track if one should hit TX.

Lets see what verifies as the season gets under way.

[Josephine96]

I am 1 who thinks Florida is at risk. Forgive me for saying what I say every year.. But we are over due.

Central Florida has not seen a direct hit from a hurricane since Erin in 1995. We just missed with Gabrielle in 2001 because she just missed becoming a hurricane when she came through..

[Guest]

I agree..Though some may beg to differ about the word overdue & hurricanes,the Fla peninsula as a whole has dodged many bullets over the past few decades & that luck is bound to run out sooner or later.

[Derek Ortt]

I am somehat convinced after the confrence that we are not at high risk this season. 6 hurricanes on the EC of Florida since 1952 (excluding the Keys) and only 3 majors leads me to believe that these are isolated events for us. However, this total of 6 does NOT include those that hit S Fla from the Caribbean, but rather landfalls from the east

[vbhoutex]

Derek, etal, what about the fact that many say we are moving into a "more active" pattern as was evident in the 1940's - 1960's? Do you feel this is the case? I think legitimate arguments can be made both ways on this one.

[Guest]

I agree with you vbhoutex..Its a tough call until we see if indeed this "more active" pattern has begun & if the result of that will be more hurricanes for South Fla & for that matter the entire peninsula,even though even during active cycles the central & northern part of the state still didn't see as much activity as the south.But anything is possible.

I just hope that the AMS hasn't become complacent because society as a whole has been warned that if you live along a coast line vulnerable to hurricanes & 1 has not occurred in a while that doesn't mean that it will remain that way..I've heard people from the late John Hope to Dr.Gray to forecasters @ the NHC say this.

We all know it has been relatively tranquil as far landfalling major hurricanes affecting the U.S. is concerned, but 1 of these years & it could be this year you never know,1 or more majors can strike..Its happened before.

I understand what Derek is saying about the EC of Florida being hit only 6 times since '52 & only 3 majors & its easy to get lulled to sleep, but what if this "more active" pattern that is being talked about so much means a return to 15 (or more I might have missed 1 or 2) EC hurricanes & many majors in a 40 year span from '26 to '66 & thats not even counting the 1's that came up from the Carib.

That included multiple hit seasons for Fla & Fla & other areas.

Even if this "more active" pattern does not develop,in any given season the EC of Fla always has hurricanes to the east or SE of here,those storms have been turning north before getting here,1 day a hurricane or 2 is going to stay headed west,a deflecting trough can be replaced by a blocking high in a short period of time.

Just think of all the hurricanes that at 1 time or another have been east of Fla.

Hugo,Bertha,Fran,Floyd,Fabian,Isabel & countless others going back through the years,could you imagine what would've been if those hurricanes would've continued Wward or W/NW instead of recurving or deflected???The EC of Fla would have been obliterated because many of those storms most likely would not have weakened at these latitudes ie Andrew like they tend to weaken most of the times the further north you get.

To make a long story short LOL,the next batch of Hugos,Berthas,Frans,Floyds,Fabians & Isabels may not turn north..So if you can look out your window & see palm trees & in the summer when you go outside its a steambath & when you go in the ocean it feels like bath water,remember that you live in hurricane country, even if you have never been in one.

[Derek Ortt]

The overall numbers of canes hitting an area really hasnt changed, just the location of landfalls. For example, the GOM is hit regardless as to whether or not there is an active or inactive period as GOM storms ar enot really dependent upon that factor. However, it should be noted that we have been in an active period for the last 9 years and this will be the 10th year and we have had only 1 Florida EC landfall. In the last active period from 1952-1969, there were only 3 canes to hit Florida, surprisingly 2 in the same year (Cloe and Dora) with Betsy the very next year. We had 2 during the inactive period (David and Andrew) so I am starting to wonder if this means that EC Florida storms are not totally dependent upon the active phase either. However, as a reminder, Donna and Georges are not included as EC hits but are instead labled as Keys hits as the EC is designated from Key Largo to the Georgia/FL Border and Irene also does not count as it was a south landfall