Twin Indian Ocean Cyclones Form, Implications for MJO/Nino

[Derecho]

Note the twin tropical systems (both are official now) on either side of the equator. Not rare at all in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific...

Indicative of a strong MJO pulse...interesting to see if it propagates East (and forms more twin cyclones, on one occasion there were TWO sets of twins in the Indian Ocean) and causes twins in the Western Pacific....leads to strong westerly wind surges along the equator.

Some papers seem to indicate that this occurs at times prior to an El Nino event (obviously, that's dependent on twin cyclones forming in the Western Pac, which could happen after it occurs in the Indian Ocean.)

The relationships are pretty complex, however.

http://www.iap.ac.cn/html/qikan/aas/aas ... 030604.pdf

http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/~bwang/bw/pubs/37.html

http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~ericg/publica ... l_JC03.pdf

[MWatkins]

So what I'm getting from these links is that we may, MAY be in hte initial stages of a warm event, but it could be 6 to 7 more months before we really start to see changes in the Pacific wind/SST structure as a result of the onset of a warm Nino.

For example, the first set of "twins" didn't occur in the Indian until 10/96, and the second set wasn't until May of the following year, which is when the 97 event got underway. We're getting the first set of twins in the Indian now, so maybe the West Pac is 6-7 months off?

Of course this is still open to much uncertanity to all of this but I though I might throw that in.

Thanks for the links, right-mover.

MW

[cycloneye]

Good links there Derecho however the big question is how much time it will take for twin cyclones to born in the western pacific because by the time that occurs the atlantic season will be in it's last month.